Opinion
Why Venezuela Petro-Aggression In Guyana Is Being Largely Ignored
ExxonMobil’s discovery is 193 kilometers (120 miles) off the coast of Guyana. The rig itself is a deep-water rig drilled to 5,433 meters (17,825 feet) through 1,743 meters (5,719 feet) of water making this a fairly complex, technical operation requiring specialized knowledge, most likely not within the engineering capabilities of Venezuela’s PDVSA – the Venezuelan state-owned oil and natural gas company.
Barring any military action, Venezuela also has relatively few options in the legal realm. Exxon’s Liza well is actually located within Guyana’s exclusive economic zone on the southeastern portion of their waters, much closer to Suriname than Venezuela.
On top of these formidable obstacles, any violation of Guyana’s territory would subject Venezuela would to international condemnation, limited regional censure, and potential additional sanctions, all of which would only contribute further destabilization factors to an already tenuous domestic situation.
So, what is really going on? What is driving Venezuelan saber rattling? The belligerent statements from the government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is symbolic, aimed at drumming up domestic support while distracting from the country’s economic failures.
As a bonus, Maduro also gets to lash out at an American energy company – 2 birds with one stone.
The bottom line is, most international integrated energy companies have learned to conduct more realistic political risk scenarios for their multi-billion dollar operations, and in this case, Exxon’s deep-water operation, along with the other companies operating in the area, does not appear to be at risk of any Venezuelan action against Guyana, militarily or otherwise.
Ryan Opsal is currently an Adjunct Lecturer and PhD Candidate in International Relations at Florida International University in Miami, Florida. His primary focus is on political risk and energy security and politics, where his doctoral dissertation involves an in-depth analysis of American and Chinese energy policies utilizing a security framework and financial analysis techniques to quantify energy security competition.
An original version of this article was first published on Oilprice.com.
