Afreximbank 2025 Trade Report Reveals Surge in Intra-African Commerce Amid Global Shifts

By Danilo Desiderio

The African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) has released its highly anticipated 2025 African Trade Report, titled “African Trade in a Changing Global Financial Architecture.” The report, an annual flagship publication of the Bank, offers a comprehensive analysis of Africa’s evolving trade dynamics amid sweeping global economic transformations.

One of the most pressing issues highlighted is the persistent trade finance gap – estimated at US$100 billion annually – which continues to stifle the growth of small and medium enterprises (SMEs), particularly their ability to participate in regional and global value chains. Although Afreximbank disbursed over US$17.5 billion in trade financing in 2024, a recent credit downgrade by Fitch Ratings could raise the cost of capital across the continent, potentially complicating the Bank’s ambitious plan to double intra-African trade financing to US$40 billion by 2026.

Other systemic hurdles identified in the report include exchange rate volatility, macroeconomic instability, regulatory fragmentation, sovereign debt vulnerabilities, and inadequate infrastructure – each posing a significant barrier to sustainable trade expansion.

Signs of Recovery and Regional Leadership

Despite these challenges, the report paints a largely optimistic picture of Africa’s trade recovery. In 2024, the continent’s merchandise trade rebounded strongly, growing by 13.9 percent to reach US$1.5 trillion after a 5.4 percent contraction in 2023.

Notably, intra-African trade saw robust growth, rising by 12.4 percent to US$220.3 billion – up from US$196.04 billion in 2023 and US$208.3 billion in 2022.

This follows a high-growth year in 2022, when intra-African trade expanded by 18.6 percent, followed by a modest 3.2 percent increase in 2023. Nigeria and Morocco emerged as key contributors to this upward trajectory in 2024.

South Africa remained the continent’s largest intra-regional exporter, accounting for 19.1 percent of total intra-African trade – slightly down from 20 percent in 2023 – with much of its exports flowing to countries in the Southern African region. As a result, Southern Africa continues to lead as the most active subregion in terms of internal trade.

AfCFTA’s Role: Promise and Limitations

The role of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in driving this growth remains somewhat ambiguous. While preferential trade under the agreement is still limited, it is primarily linked to the Guided Trade Initiative.

A recent post-implementation review suggests that while the AfCFTA has begun to stimulate intra-African commerce, its impact so far has been modest and uneven across member states.

To unlock the full potential of the AfCFTA, the report calls for addressing structural bottlenecks, promoting inclusive labor standards, and ensuring broad-based stakeholder engagement – including historically marginalized groups – in trade policy formulation and implementation. These conditions, the authors note, have yet to be fully realized.

Looking Beyond the Numbers: Informal Trade and Future Prospects

Currently, formal intra-African trade accounts for just 14.4 percent of Africa’s total trade volume. However, the report notes that this figure does not capture informal trade, which remains substantial across many regions.

Were informal exchanges included, the actual level of trade within the continent would likely be significantly higher.

As Africa navigates a shifting global financial order, the 2025 report serves as both a progress report and a roadmap – underscoring the need for strategic investments, policy coherence, and institutional support to solidify the continent’s position on the global stage.

Danilo Desiderio serves as the CEO of Desiderio Consultants Ltd in Nairobi, Kenya, specializing in African customs, trade, and transport policies. He is a customs and trade expert at the World Bank and a senior associate to the Horn Economic and Social Policy Institute (HESPI).