Can Black American Candidates Succeed without Majority Electorates?

By Gregory Simpkins

In my writing, I have avoided partisan arguments because both the Democratic and Republican parties operate mainly for the benefit of their elected officials and seek whatever advantage they can create for themselves. We are currently in a redistricting war between the two major American political parties that predated the recent case of Louisiana v. Callais, which struck down a Louisiana congressional map that a group of voters who describe themselves as “non-African American” had challenged as the product of unconstitutional racial gerrymandering.

By a vote of 6-3, the justices left in place a ruling by a federal court that barred the state from using the map, which had created a second majority-Black district, for future elections.

The current political conflict in advance of the November by-elections involves gerrymandering, which is the manipulation of electoral district boundaries to benefit a party, group or incumbent. The term gerrymander comes from 1812 Massachusetts, named for Governor Elbridge Gerry, who signed a redistricting bill that drew state senate districts to favor his Democratic-Republican Party over the Federalists.

One Boston-area district was so contorted that a political cartoonist said it looked like a salamander. The Boston Gazette coined “Gerry-mander” by combining “Gerry” + “salamander”.

Gerry lost re-election in 1812, but his party kept the state senate because of the map.

However, drawing districts for partisan advantage predates Gerry. Patrick Henry tried it in Virginia in 1788 to keep James Madison out of the first Congress, but Gerry’s map gave it a name.

After each 10-year census, states redraw congressional and state legislative maps to equalize population. Whoever controls that process can skew outcomes.

The main tactics of gerrymandering are:

1. Cracking: Split up the opposing party’s voters across many districts so they are a minority in each. Example: A city that votes 60 percent Blue (Democrat) gets divided among 5 Red-leaning (Republican) suburban districts. Blue loses all 5.
2. Packing: Cram the opposing party’s voters into as few districts as possible. Example: Put 80 percent of Blue voters into 1 district. They win that district 80-20, but “waste” votes. The other 4 districts stay Red 55-45.
3. Hijacking: Redraw lines to put two incumbents from the opposing party into the same district, forcing them to run against each other or create or draw both parties’ incumbents into safe seats, creating less competition.
4. Kidnapping: Move an incumbent’s home address or base of support into a district where they are less likely to win.
5. Substitute addresses: Count incarcerated people where prisons are located, not their home addresses.

How Modern Technology Has Transformed the Science of Gerrymandering

Gerrymandering is illegal if it dilutes minority votes, but the Voting Rights Act sometimes requires majority-minority districts, which can look like “packing.”

Gerrymandering today is data-driven. Mapmakers use precinct-level election results, voter registration, demographics and algorithms to predict how areas vote. Modern Geographic Information Systems tools can generate thousands of maps and pick the one with the most partisan skew while meeting legal rules like “contiguity” and “compactness.”

Voting districts must be roughly equal in population. Federal law bans racial vote dilution. Some states add rules: compact districts, keep communities together, no favoring parties. But “compact” is vague and easy to game.

As a result of this practice, there are fewer competitive races: In 2024, less than 10 percent of US House races were decided by less than 5 points. Safe districts mean the real election is the primary, pushing candidates to extremes as it is easier to motivate very partisan voters to participate in primaries.

A party can win 55 percent of votes statewide but only 40 percent of seats because of the map.

The Supreme Court ruled in Rucho v. Common Cause (2019) that federal courts cannot hear partisan gerrymandering claims – it is a “political question” left to states or Congress. Racial gerrymandering remains illegal though.

In the current redistricting battle, emotional appeals to fairness are used to demonstrate the need for reshaping partisan-drawn voting districts. However, these efforts – by both parties – are designed to accumulate, consolidate and maintain political power.

Diaspora Politicians Can Succeed without Majority-Minority Electorates

Since the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and Voting Rights Act of 1965, several Black Americans have won office in states, counties or cities where Black voters are not the majority. No state in the US has a Black majority. So any statewide win means winning without a majority-Black electorate. Here are notable examples:

US Senate

1. Edward Brooke (R-MA) – 1966, 1972. First Black American elected by popular vote to US Senate. Massachusetts was ∼3 percent Black then.
2. Carol Moseley Braun (D-IL) – 1992. Illinois ∼15 percent Black.
3. Barack Obama (D-IL) – 2004. Illinois ∼15 percent Black.
4. Cory Booker (D-NJ) – 2013, 2014, 2020. New Jersey ∼13 percent Black.
5. Kamala Harris (D-CA) – 2016. California ∼6 percent Black.
6. Tim Scott (R-SC) – 2014, 2016, 2022. South Carolina ∼27 percent Black.
7. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) – 2020, 2022. Georgia ∼31 percent Black

Governors

1. Douglas Wilder (D-VA) – 1989. Virginia ∼19 percent Black at the time.
2. Deval Patrick (D-MA) – 2006, 2010. Massachusetts ∼7 percent Black.
3. Wes Moore (D-MD) – 2022. Maryland ∼31 percent Black.

Other statewide offices

• Roland Burris (D-IL) – Attorney General, 1991-1995
• Pamela Carter (D-IN) – Attorney General, 1993-1997
• Kamala Harris (D-CA) – Attorney General, 2011-2017li>
• Letitia James (D-NY) – Attorney General, 2019-present
• Keith Ellison (D-MN) – Attorney General, 2019-present
• Daniel Cameron (R-KY) – Attorney General, 2019-2023
• Kwame Raoul (D-IL) – Attorney General, 2019-present
• Andrea Campbell (D-MA) – Attorney General, 2023-present

Mississippi has the highest Black population percentage in the United States but hasn’t elected a Black candidate to statewide office since 1890. Maryland had never elected a Black candidate statewide before Wes Moore in 2022.

Still, most Black House members historically came from majority-minority districts. But, as shown previously, some have won in districts without a Black majority/plurality, especially post-1965. To date, 80 percent of Black US Representatives have been Democrats.

Statewide wins require crossover votes. As of 2021, 13 percent of House members were Black, about on par with US population.

At-large/majority-vote rules hurt. In Georgia counties, at-large districts were “statistically unlikely to provide African American representation.”

In the current redistricting battle, emotional appeals to fairness are used to demonstrate the need for reshaping partisan-drawn voting districts. However, these efforts – by both parties – are designed to accumulate, consolidate and maintain political power.

This fact must be kept in mind by voters, who are not necessarily the beneficiary of redrawn districts. The political parties look first to their own electoral needs over redressing past or current injustices.

Gregory Simpkins, a longtime specialist in African policy development, is the Principal of 21st Century Solutions. He consults with organizations on African policy issues generally, especially in relating to the U.S. Government. He further acts as a consultant to the African Merchants Association, where he advises the Association in its efforts to stimulate an increase in trade between several hundred African Diaspora small and medium enterprises and their African partners.