Nigeria: The Overlooked Investment of the Century

By John Kourkoutas

Goldman Sachs projects Nigeria to be the world’s sixth-largest economy by 2075. Yet, in 2025, countless European companies still won’t respond to emails from Lagos.

Let that sink in.

The same financial institutions touting Nigeria’s long-term ascent are advising clients who treat Nigerian counterparties as “too risky” to engage with today. The disconnect isn’t just ironic – it’s strategic negligence.

Goldman’s list of the world’s top six economies by 2075 reads as follows:

1. China
2. India
3. United States
4. Indonesia
5. Nigeria
6. Pakistan

Three of these – Nigeria, Indonesia, and Pakistan – are routinely dismissed by Western firms as “high-risk,” “underdeveloped,” or “not ready.” Meanwhile, those same markets are home to over 740 million people today.

This isn’t foresight – it’s confirmation of trends already underway. And the companies sleeping on them are repeating a mistake they have made before.

The Playbook Western Firms Keep Ignoring

Consider the pattern:

2025–2035: European firms will continue “monitoring” Nigeria. They will commission feasibility studies, attend glossy conferences on “Africa’s potential,” and wait – patiently, politely – for infrastructure to “mature.”

2035–2050: Asian enterprises, many of which established beachheads in Lagos, Jakarta, and Karachi a decade earlier, will dominate local supply chains. They will own distribution networks, command brand loyalty, and lock in partnerships that become institutional over time.

2050–2070: European companies will finally declare Nigeria “open for business.” By then, they will be negotiating for table scraps in a market already carved up by competitors with 25+ years of operational history.

This script played out in China. It’s unfolding now in India. And unless Western decision-makers wake up, it will replay – in high definition – in Nigeria, Indonesia, and Pakistan.

The Growth Isn’t Coming – It’s Already Compounding

Here is what is rarely acknowledged:
When Goldman Sachs forecasts Nigeria as a top-six economy by 2075, it’s not making a speculative bet on the distant future. It’s quantifying the compounding impact of forces already in motion:

• 220 million people – and counting
• Africa’s largest economy by nominal GDP
• US$15 billion in annual imports – and rising
• 37 billion barrels of proven oil reserves – not to mention gas, lithium, and arable land

The urbanization wave is accelerating. The middle class is expanding. Infrastructure – from digital rails to toll roads – is being built at a pace that belies the outdated “chaos” narrative.

You are not “early” to Nigeria. You are already late – relative to the firms quietly scaling operations on the ground right now.

The companies winning in Nigeria today didn’t wait for a Goldman Sachs report. They saw fundamentals and acted:

While rivals debated “stability,” they built trust. While others commissioned PowerPoint decks, they hired local teams. While competitors held “Africa strategy” workshops, they opened warehouses, signed leases, and shipped products.

By 2075, those firms won’t be “entering” the world’s sixth-largest economy. They would have helped build it.

Your Move: Builder or Bystander?

So here’s the real question: If you believe Goldman Sachs’ 2075 projection – why are you still treating Nigeria like it’s 1975?

Indonesia has 280 million people today. Pakistan has 240 million today. Nigeria has 220 million today.

These aren’t “emerging markets.” They have already emerged. The only question is whether your company was paying attention.

The true opportunity isn’t in reading the forecast – it’s in recognizing that most people read it and do nothing. The winners of 2075 aren’t waiting. They are operating.

Are you one of them? Or are you still “monitoring developments” while the future gets built without you?

Final thought: If you truly believe Nigeria will be a top-six economy by 2075 – what concrete steps is your organization taking in 2025 to secure a leading position in it? Because history won’t remember the analysts who predicted the rise. It will reward the builders who showed up first.

John Kourkoutas is business development expert that specializes in helping companies, export teams, and business leaders succeed in Africa’s dynamic and emerging markets.