Amid Global Trade Frictions, Supply Chains Show Surprising Resilience – Led by Sub-Saharan Africa

By Danilo Desiderio

Contrary to the prevailing narrative of deglobalization, the world’s supply chains are not unraveling – they are evolving. The latest October 2025 update of the Global Connectedness Tracker, jointly produced by DHL and NYU Stern School of Business, delivers a striking verdict: despite escalating trade tensions, record U.S. tariffs, and geopolitical volatility, global trade remains resilient, adaptive, and surprisingly expansive.

Far from pulling inward, businesses and governments are navigating a more fragmented world order not by retreating from globalization, but by reconfiguring it. The data reveals no meaningful pivot from international to domestic activity.

Instead, firms are diversifying suppliers, rerouting logistics, and forging new trade corridors – proving that globalization is not dead, merely rewired.

Trade Defies the Odds

The first half of 2025 witnessed the fastest half-year growth in global trade volumes since 2010 – excluding the anomalous pandemic rebound of 2020–21 – despite U.S. tariffs climbing to their highest levels since the Smoot-Hawley era of the 1930s. Much of this momentum stemmed from strategic stockpiling by importers ahead of anticipated tariff hikes. But more enduring forces are also at play.

China, long cast as a geopolitical lightning rod, is actively reshaping its export strategy. While U.S.-bound shipments have softened, Chinese exporters are deepening ties with markets across Asia, Europe, and notably, Africa.

This pivot has not only cushioned China’s trade performance but also injected fresh dynamism into global commerce.

Sub-Saharan Africa: The Unexpected Trade Powerhouse

Perhaps the most compelling revelation lies south of the Sahara. Sub-Saharan Africa recorded a 9.6 percent year-on-year increase in trade value (in current U.S. dollars) during the first half of 2025 – outpacing the global average and defying the headwinds of protectionism.

This surge signals more than a statistical anomaly; it reflects a region increasingly integrated into – and benefiting from – the very global networks many assumed were contracting.

From agro-processing hubs in Kenya to mineral supply chains in the Democratic Republic of Congo and digital trade corridors in Nigeria, African economies are leveraging infrastructure investments, regional trade agreements like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and growing foreign direct investment to capture a larger slice of global value chains.

The Myth of Nearshoring

Widespread predictions of “nearshoring” and regionalization have not materialized as expected. In fact, average global trade distances hit a record 3,045 miles in early 2025 – evidence that supply chains remain broadly dispersed rather than collapsing into regional blocs.

Mexico exemplifies this nuanced reality. While its exports are increasingly oriented toward its North American neighbors – driven by U.S. policy incentives and logistical proximity – its imports tell a different story: they are diversifying across a wider array of global suppliers, including from Asia and Europe.

This duality underscores a key insight: trade flows are becoming more strategic, not necessarily shorter.

A Steady, If Slower, Horizon

Looking ahead, DHL’s forecast projects moderate but steady trade growth through 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.5 percent – in line with the past decade. North America faces the steepest downgrade due to tariff-driven friction, while South and Central Asia, the Middle East, and especially sub-Saharan Africa are positioned for the strongest gains.

This is not the globalization of the 1990s – unfettered, uniform, and unipolar. Today’s version is multipolar, risk-aware, and selectively integrated.

Companies are building redundancy into supply chains, governments are balancing openness with security, and emerging markets are seizing new opportunities in a recalibrated world order.

The Bottom Line

Globalization is not reversing; it is adapting. And in this new era, sub-Saharan Africa is not just participating – it is leading.

As policymakers and business leaders chart their course through an era of strategic competition, they would do well to look beyond the headlines of trade wars and recognize the quiet, persistent expansion of global commerce – now with Africa at its vanguard.

Danilo Desiderio serves as the CEO of Desiderio Consultants Ltd in Nairobi, Kenya, specializing in African customs, trade, and transport policies. He is a customs and trade expert at the World Bank and a senior associate to the Horn Economic and Social Policy Institute (HESPI).