Africa’s Strategic Next Move in the Era of Trump 2.0

By Emmanuel Musaazi

Trump is back with a bang. But the crucial question remains: Were any lessons learned from Trump 1.0?

Is Africa prepared to engage with Trump’s transactional, unconventional, and off-the-cuff style, which is firmly rooted in the philosophy of putting America first? More importantly, what are Africa’s viable options in navigating this new political landscape?

In this era of globalization, where the ubiquity and sophistication of technology have fundamentally transformed every aspect of contemporary society, and the billionaire class has never been wealthier or more overtly powerful, President Trump’s return is both fitting and formidable. He embodies the essence of the times – a billionaire leader of the world’s most powerful and technologically advanced nation, which he claims is not as great as it once was, if his campaign slogan, MAGA (Make America Great Again), is anything to go by.

This slogan continues to resonate with a significant portion of the American population, securing his second victory and a return to the White House.

Under Trump 2.0, MAGA is more than just a campaign slogan; it is the guiding principle shaping all his policies. This philosophy is what defines Trump as a transactional leader – one who views international relations through the lens of deals and reciprocity, with little room for sentimentality or traditional diplomacy.

The era of American freebies and goodwill, which have historically underpinned U.S. soft power and complemented its military and economic dominance, appears to be over, at least for the next four years. Freebies, whether in the form of foreign aid, humanitarian support, or funding for global initiatives, are being reconsidered under Trump’s America First agenda.

This shifting geopolitical dynamic requires Africa to re-evaluate its strategies and adapt to a new reality where U.S. engagement is purely transactional. In this context, Africa’s challenge is to negotiate from a position of strength, ensuring that future engagements are mutually beneficial and strategically sound.

As Trump redefines American foreign policy, Africa must be prepared to engage with pragmatism, leveraging its collective bargaining power and pursuing multifaceted alliances that safeguard its long-term interests.

First Time Around

Trump’s term was not so different from what he is setting out to do in the second term, During Donald Trump’s first administration, Africa experienced both gains and setbacks. Economically, the Prosper Africa Initiative, launched in 2019, aimed to enhance U.S.-Africa trade and investment, projecting to leverage over US$9 in private investment for every US$1 of public funding, potentially delivering billions in exports and creating hundreds of thousands of jobs by 2026.

U.S. goods and services trade with Africa reached US$67 billion in 2019, supported by the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which remained in place. The administration also supported energy projects through the Power Africa initiative, enhancing access to electricity in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Additionally, security cooperation was strengthened with increased military partnerships and counter-terrorism operations in regions facing extremist threats, such as Somalia (Al-Shabaab) and the Sahel (ISIS and Al-Qaeda affiliates). Partnerships expanded with Kenya, Niger, and Nigeria to enhance regional security.

However, Africa also faced challenges. Diplomatic relations were strained due to reduced engagement and controversial remarks.

Proposed foreign aid cuts, including plans to dismantle USAID, a US$40 billion agency, threatened vital health and development programs, although most reductions were blocked by Congress. The 2020 travel ban expansion impacted immigration from several African nations, and the China-U.S. trade war indirectly affected African economies dependent on exports to China.

As Africa contemplates its next move in the potential era of “Trump 2.0,” it must strategically navigate these complex dynamics to safeguard its economic, political, and security interests.

What To Expect in Trump 2.0

Even though it might be too early for a conclusive verdict about Trump 2.0 intentions toward Africa, nevertheless a trajectory is emerging based on the recent proclamations and executive orders. In the early months of his second administration, several decisions have significantly impacted Africa, presenting both challenges and opportunities.

A notable executive order instituted a 90-day freeze on USAID activities, directly affecting numerous health and development programs across the continent. This suspension disrupted the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), leading to the closure of clinics and layoffs of health workers, thereby restricting access to HIV testing and treatment.

In Ethiopia, the aid freeze halted food shipments and essential medical supplies, exacerbating existing humanitarian crises. Additionally, an executive order suspended aid to South Africa in response to its 2024 land reform bill, which allows for land expropriation without compensation.

This action strained diplomatic relations and raised concerns about potential economic repercussions, including the possible loss of trade benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). These policy decisions underscore the complex dynamics between the U.S. and African nations, highlighting the need for strategic navigation to safeguard Africa’s economic, political, and health interests in the evolving geopolitical landscape.

Africa’s Approach and Strategies

To effectively navigate the evolving geopolitical landscape under Trump 2.0, Africa must adopt a multifaceted and strategic approach that goes beyond traditional bilateral engagements. First, Africa should engage with the U.S. multilaterally rather than unilaterally.

By negotiating as a bloc, through the African Union (AU) or regional organizations such as the East African Community (EAC), Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), or the Southern African Development Community (SADC), Africa can enhance its bargaining power and secure win-win agreements that align with its sustainable growth agenda, including Agenda 2063. For example, the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit convened in 2022 saw multiple African nations negotiating as a group, which led to commitments on clean energy investment and digital economy partnerships.

This approach can be built upon to collectively negotiate trade agreements that protect African markets while fostering technological transfer and infrastructure development, counterbalancing Trump’s transactional style by leveraging Africa’s collective market size and strategic resources.

Second, Africa must build on intra-African cooperation to reduce dependency on external powers, including the U.S. the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) presents a significant opportunity to expand intra-Africa trade and economic integration, driving industrialization and economic growth from within. Emerging trends show that intra-African trade grew by 20 percent in 2022, with notable success in the East African Community’s harmonization of customs procedures, which increased cross-border trade efficiency.

Additionally, South Africa’s automotive industry is beginning to source parts from Morocco and Egypt, showcasing the potential for regional automobile industries.

An exemplary initiative is the Lobito Corridor Project, which is set to transform regional trade in Southern Africa. The Lobito Corridor, connecting the Angolan port of Lobito to the mineral-rich regions of Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo), provides a strategic transport route that reduces dependence on South African ports.

The project not only improves logistics efficiency but also integrates mining, manufacturing, and transport sectors across Angola, Zambia, and the DR Congo. By facilitating mineral exports and supporting regional value chains, the corridor enhances industrialization and economic integration in Southern Africa.

Furthermore, the involvement of multiple African countries in this infrastructure project showcases the potential of regional economic collaboration to drive sustainable growth. If leveraged effectively, it can also attract foreign investment, including U.S. participation under initiatives like Prosper Africa, thereby strategically balancing global economic interests.

This model of regional cooperation serves as a blueprint for other African regions to enhance connectivity and boost intra-African trade.

Similarly, the Grand Inga Dam project in the DR Congo highlights the benefits of regional power generation, which can supply energy to multiple African countries. Furthermore, the African Medicines Agency (AMA), launched in 2021, sets the stage for regional health and technology initiatives.

By advancing these collaborative economic integrations, Africa can position itself as a formidable trading bloc in global markets while making its economies more resilient.

Third, Africa should deepen South-to-South cooperation, expanding multilateral economic, trade, and diplomatic relations with emerging economies and developed nations beyond the West. Africa is already leveraging BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) for investment in infrastructure, such as China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects across East Africa, including the Mombasa-Nairobi Standard Gauge Railway in Kenya.

Additionally, India’s increasing investment in Africa’s pharmaceutical industry provides an avenue for reducing dependency on Western health systems. Meanwhile, Russia’s energy partnerships in North Africa, particularly in Algeria and Egypt, illustrate opportunities in energy and natural resource management.

Africa’s growing trade ties with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), particularly in agriculture and food security, also signify emerging trends. By expanding relations with Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America, Africa can diversify its economic partnerships, balance geopolitical influences, and exploit opportunities in a multi-polar world order.

Conclusion

By building on these emerging trends and strategically realigning its diplomatic and economic engagements, Africa can navigate the challenges and opportunities of Trump’s second administration, fostering economic independence, political resilience, and sustainable growth for the continent. Trump’s sanctions on South Africa due to land reform laws that sought to address historical inequities and injustices by white minorities against the black majority, along with the freeze on USAID aid that serves as a lifeline for millions in Africa and around the world, clearly demonstrate that social justice and human rights are not primary considerations in his decision-making.

This approach is consistent with Trump’s broader policy stance, as evidenced by his decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Climate Accord and the World Health Organization (WHO), signaling a diminished commitment to international cooperation on global issues. Moving forward, Africa should anticipate a decline in the influence of international norms and institutions, many of which depend on U.S. financial and political support.

Trump’s leadership style favors direct, unilateral, or bilateral dealings on a case-by-case basis, guided by what he perceives as beneficial for the U.S. As a populist leader, his decisions are heavily influenced by domestic issues and the interests of his political base, which is rooted in economic nationalism, cultural conservatism, and anti-establishment sentiment.

This evolving geopolitical reality calls for Africa to strategically diversify its alliances and economic partnerships, while enhancing intra-continental cooperation to safeguard its long-term interests.