Owusu on Africa: What the dissolution of the interim Guinea government by the junta could mean

By Fidel Amakye Owusu

A couple of weeks ago, during the ISOA Africa Conference in Nairobi, I posited the argument that while every coup is a coup, the recent coups in Africa can be grouped into two main categories.

While military takeovers in the Sahel region have mainly resulted from the insecurity posed by violent extremism, those in Guinea and Gabon occurred due to the fact that the civilian leaders were reluctant to step down from power when their terms expired.

After Guinea’s former president Alpha Condé decided to tweak the constitution of Guinea to stay on, he went ahead to subsequently rig the general elections to secure a third term – resulting in violent protests by the citizens. The military take-over was, therefore, welcomed by many Guineans.

This notwithstanding, regional and continental actors, in consonance with protocols applied pressure on the military to hand over power as soon as possible and return the country to “democracy”. As a result, an interim government was created in mid-2022.

Last week, it was reported that the junta, in a televized announcement, dissolved the government. While dissolutions of government in Francophone Africa are not rare, recent events in the region and the nature of the announcement are worth attention.

Firstly, with other juntas in the region threatening to sever ties with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and in effect technically evading any pressure to handover from the bloc, the junta in Guinea could be taking a second look at the level of control it has in the country.

The junta is most likely to replace the dissolved government with a more pliable one that gives it “absolute” control.

Again, the adversarial content of the announcement gives weight to the idea that the junta seek to exert more power than it currently has. It called members of the outgoing government to hand over their passports and ordered a freeze of all their bank accounts. Such orders are often given during coups d’état – not good.

Way forward?

When the Sahel juntas decided to break away from ECOWAS, Guinea did not join them. However, it appears the soldiers in Africa’s largest producer of bauxite wants to entrench themselves in power. This does not bode well for the country’s democratic transition.

ECOWAS and the AU need to engage with the junta in Conakry before the situation deteriorates. A transition that caters for the fears of coup makers needs to be developed as the region faces a recession in the democratic gains it made in the past few decades.

Fidel Amakye Owusu is an International Relations and Security Analyst. He is an Associate at the Conflict Research Consortium for Africa and has previously hosted an International Affairs program with the Ghana Broadcasting Corporation (GBC). He is passionate about Diplomacy and realizing Africa’s global potential and how the continent should be viewed as part of the global collective.