Owusu on Africa: From Nobel Peace awardee to an irredentist? Or Ethiopia is still evolving?

By Fidel Amakye Owusu

One of the major reasons experts give for intrastate conflicts in Africa is the fact that states in the continent did not have the “opportunity” to evolve on their own. I agree.​

Today, several of the 54 sovereign states in Africa are faced with more internal centrifugal forces than they would ever face from their neighboring states. Even where there exists some stability, politics is organized along ethnic lines.​

The limited interstate frictions have not meant the absence of them. Where they are found, interstate clashes and tensions cause more harm and worsen domestic conflicts.​

The Horn of Africa is a hotspot for both inter and intra-state conflicts. As it stands, Ethiopia is currently the epicentre of the troubles in the region. The country is faced with deadly internal clashes between the federal government and ethno-regional actors.​

More troubling, old and macaber interstate conflicts are threatening to come back in ways that could be more devastating.​

What’s accounting for these?​

Firstly, apart from Mussolini’s occupation of Ethiopia before and during World War II, the country did not experience the kind of colonialism most African countries went through. This means that it had the “luxury” of evolving on its own for most of its history. It was present in Berlin during the 1884/5 conference that partitioned Africa.​

This meant that the borders of Ethiopia were not entirely demarcated to its satisfaction.

Eventually, the coastal territory of Eritrea became part of Ethiopia in the 20th century, albeit against popular sentiments. This ended in the 1990s after Eritrea declared its independence, thus effectively rendering Ethiopia a landlocked state.​

Currently, Ethiopia is insisting that it must have access to the Red Sea coast. It believes that as the largest landlocked state in terms of population, it must have a port for its survival. Interestingly, this assertion is gaining support among the populace. The target is the old port of Assab. Many fear war may result from such ambitions. States in the region are worried.​

When Abiy Ahmed took over as Prime Minister in 2019, it signaled an end to the post-Cold War Tigrayan domination of Ethiopian politics. Notably, he had quickly pursued rapprochement with Eritrea. These moves earned him the Nobel Peace Prize and global respect. At the same time, his decisions were laying the foundation for more domestic clashes.​

Way forward?​

Ethiopia is an African giant that can develop peacefully without bloodshed in the neighborhood. For the country to maintain its weight and become more influential in the region and beyond, it needs to take a pacifist path that keeps its neighbors at ease or else they may come together to undo its power.

Fidel Amakye Owusu is an International Relations and Security Analyst. He is an Associate at the Conflict Research Consortium for Africa and has previously hosted an International Affairs program with the Ghana Broadcasting Corporation (GBC). He is passionate about Diplomacy and realizing Africa’s global potential and how the continent should be viewed as part of the global collective.