ECOWAS Meets as Coup Leaders Solidifies New Alliance (AES)

By Godfred Zina

On July 6, 2024, the heads of the military juntas from Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso gathered in Niamey for the first meeting aimed at formalizing the creation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). This alliance, which was established in September 2023 after the countries withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), named Assimi Goïta as its president for a one-year period.

The primary objectives of the AES are to bolster security and development cooperation, as well as to forge new alliances with nations such as Russia and China, marking a shift away from their historical colonial power, France. The leaders of the coups criticized external meddling in ECOWAS affairs, arguing that the organization had not met its responsibilities.

Despite ECOWAS lifting the suspensions and sanctions on Guinea, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger due to their coups, the latter three countries have chosen not to rejoin, signaling a definitive break at their initial AES summit.

Before the junta summit, ECOWAS elected its first female speaker, Hadja Memounatou Ibrahima, who advocated for stronger regional collaboration. During the bloc’s first ordinary session, ECOWAS Chair President Omar Touray highlighted the need for collective action to combat insecurity, terrorism, and poverty, expressing worries about the potential disintegration of the bloc following the withdrawals.

Various West African leaders, such as Senegal’s President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and Mauritania’s President Mohamed Ould Cheikh El Ghazouani, called for solutions based on dialogue, although the momentum for military withdrawal seems to be increasing.

In mid-May, the foreign ministers from Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger reached an agreement on a draft for the AES confederation, which was officially adopted during the recent summit with the signing of a confederation treaty in Niamey. Mali’s leader, Col. Assimi Goïta, reaffirmed a mutual defense position, stating that “An attack on one of us will be an attack on all.”

Following the establishment of the AES confederation, ECOWAS presidents convened in Abuja to discuss sub-regional issues, warning that the Confederation of Sahel States might result in political isolation and heightened insecurity.

Nigeria’s President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who was re-appointed as ECOWAS chair, suggested that Senegal’s new leader could serve as a “special envoy” to Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, without providing further details.

ECOWAS is currently dealing with jihadist violence and financial limitations, proposing a standby force of 1,500 members, which could potentially expand to a brigade of 5,000 troops, costing roughly US$2.6 billion annually.

The departure of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger from ECOWAS has shaken the regional economic bloc, testing its capacity to address regional issues and maintain influence, amidst mixed reactions from the citizens of West Africa, some of whom support the recent coups.

Godfred Zina is a freelance journalist and an associate with DefSEC Analytics Africa – a consulting agency specializing in the provision of accurate date and assessments on security, politics, investment, trade, and other risks within Africa. He is based in Accra, Ghana.