Afrobarometer Survey Reveals Surprising Divide: Trade Liberalization More Popular in African Autocracies Than Democracies

By Danilo Desiderio

A groundbreaking Afrobarometer survey spanning 34 African countries sheds light on a fascinating paradox: the appetite for trade liberalization is stronger in autocratic regimes than in democracies. The study examines how closely foreign policies adopted by African governments align with the preferences of their citizens on two pivotal issues – free movement of persons and free trade.

These areas are central to the success of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), which seeks to create a unified African market by facilitating the seamless flow of goods and people across borders.

The findings reveal a striking disconnect between citizens’ perceptions and government optimism on these critical issues. While African governments tend to embrace free trade with enthusiasm, their citizens are more skeptical about its benefits.

Conversely, when it comes to free movement, public sentiment leans toward greater liberalization, with many Africans feeling that their governments have not gone far enough. Perhaps most intriguing is the revelation that autocratic states exhibit a higher propensity for trade openness compared to their democratic counterparts.

A Tale of Two Policies: Trade vs. Movement

Though free trade and free movement are deeply interconnected, the survey does not suggest that Africans, particularly in robust democracies, favor protectionism over liberalization. Instead, it highlights a broader misalignment between public perceptions and governmental priorities.

In the case of free trade, this gap might stem from a lack of awareness among citizens about the potential benefits of increased market liberalization. Bridging this information deficit could help align public opinion with policy objectives.

On the other hand, the dissatisfaction surrounding free movement appears more straightforward. Many Africans feel that progress in this area has been insufficient.

This frustration underscores a growing sense of disconnection between citizens and the institutions governing them, particularly regarding policies implemented by both national governments and the African Union.

Why the Disconnect?

Afrobarometer acknowledges that further research is needed to unravel the root causes of this disaffection. Key questions remain: Are citizens disillusioned because they perceive these policies as ineffective, or do they simply lack adequate information to appreciate their long-term benefits?

The path to a single African market is paved with opportunities for collaboration, but it requires leaders to harmonize their ambitions with the hopes and realities of those they represent.

Understanding these dynamics is crucial for the successful implementation of the AfCFTA and for crafting foreign policies that resonate with the public.

Public Opinion vs. Foreign Policy: Who Leads Whom?

This raises a fundamental question: Does public opinion shape foreign policy, or does foreign policy shape public opinion? In democratic systems, governments derive their legitimacy from the consent of the governed.

Ignoring public sentiment on significant foreign policy issues risks eroding this legitimacy and widening the gap between state and citizenry. Conversely, foreign policies that enjoy broad public support are more likely to withstand political transitions and achieve long-term success.

Policies that face widespread public opposition, however, often encounter resistance and struggle to gain traction. This is a critical consideration as African nations navigate the complexities of implementing the AfCFTA.

For the agreement to succeed, policymakers must ensure that it reflects the aspirations and concerns of ordinary citizens while addressing the practical challenges of regional integration.

A Call to Action

The Afrobarometer survey serves as both a wake-up call and an opportunity. It highlights the urgent need for governments to engage more effectively with their citizens, fostering dialogue and transparency around trade and movement policies.

By doing so, they can build trust, close the perception gap, and create a shared vision for Africa’s economic future.

As the continent moves forward with the AfCFTA, the challenge lies in balancing the imperatives of governance with the voices of the governed. Failure to address these disparities risks undermining the very goals the agreement seeks to achieve – a prosperous, integrated Africa driven by the collective will of its people.

In the end, the success of Africa’s bold experiment in continental unity may hinge not just on the policies themselves, but on how well leaders listen to – and learn from – the citizens they serve.

Final Thought: The path to a single African market is paved with opportunities for collaboration, but it requires leaders to harmonize their ambitions with the hopes and realities of those they represent.

Danilo Desiderio serves as the CEO of Desiderio Consultants Ltd in Nairobi, Kenya, specializing in African customs, trade, and transport policies. He is a customs and trade expert at the World Bank and a senior associate to the Horn Economic and Social Policy Institute (HESPI).