Editorial
Part V: Why Obama Will Win in November 2012
And yet Obama is not necessarily going down the way many say or think he might. Whether by fate or design, the country, since the days of Nixon has increasingly become more divided along party and ideological lines – in ways that Morris Fiorina, Almond & Verba or Adam Abramovitz could not have predicted. It appears as though Obama has divided the country into the Red and Blue states that he preached against in his legendary 2004 Boston speech to the Democratic National Convention. In fact, victory in 2012 might come down to whether there are more Democrats or Republicans available to vote. Also, independents are increasingly showing their muscle and like they seem to do for Romney right now, could determine who takes the solemn oath come January 2013. But, again, all this is, as at October 10, 2012 neither here nor there!
If the election were held today, one week after the Obama/Romney debate, some polls, including the Gallup one and now, the Pew Poll, say that Obama will lose the election. But in reality, today, even when Romney is giddy with all kinds of good fortune, Obama leads his Republican rival by more 60 electoral votes when you look at the numbers from the battleground states. Simply: Obama is leading in Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire. Colorado, which until last week, was an Obama state, is now a toss up – in the same column as Virginia, Florida and North Carolina. But Obama, in spite of this, leads by 263 electoral votes to Romney’s 206. Besides, even if Romney won Virginia, Florida and North Carolina, he still is not as competitive in Ohio as his opponent. All Obama has to do is win Colorado and take that state’s 9 electoral votes. Is this a point of comfort for the president? I do not think so. Besides [again], Romney’s performance last week exposed Obama in such a horrible way.
Mr. Romney’s Prevarication
But then, Mitt Romney told so many lies! Liberals who were, rightly, outraged that Obama could not defend himself were even more upset that Romney could be as brazen in showing the callousness of a habitually barefoot farmhand! Online papers such as The Daily Beast actually blare screaming headlines about Obama’s Doom – and yet in their subtext, one can find that they are just trying to motivate the Democratic base into action. Romney, on the other hand, seems to be sailing on water – with people ignoring all those conservative aspects that are stretched at the seams. Jack Welch’s doubting of the lower unemployment numbers has, seemingly, showed that the Obama caricature Romney is running against is not really there. Thus, the spotlight is right back on Obama to dispel, clarify and define himself.
Also, like we mentioned above, Romney managed to gore the Obama Beast – but not mortally. There are two more Obama|Romney matches to look forward to and until the Fat Lady sings, everyone and their mother can hardly wait to see Obama taking it to the man!
Will these next debates be anything to reckon with? Of course. These will be a townhall event – where ordinary people will ask questions – and then there’s the foreign policy debate. To start with the latter, Mitt Romney’s Monday October 8, 2012 foreign policy speech was widely panned for not being specific or presenting anything special. Then, the townhall format might favor Obama in that he may now be up to speed on his talking points and responses to ordinary people questions. Basically, just like Romney, the President must bring his A game. Obama must call Romney out on his lies, and although one cannot accuse his opponent of all those things they have changed their minds about, Obama can allude to Romney’s slipperiness as an unpresidential quality.
The Vice Presidential Debate
To move away from the Obama | Romney debates, Obama might get a second chance to turn the tide of things when conservatives tune in to watch their intellectual head Paul Ryan go against the Democrats’ gaff prone Vice President, Joe Biden. Mr. Ryan is going to have some ‘splaining to do following some of the positions his boss took last week. How will Ryan defend Romney’s centrist statements and yet he, himself, has a a conservative budget, a Medicare Plan that includes a voucher program and an anti abortion stance? Conversely, how will Joe Biden perform after he watched his own boss lose to someone both the President and Vice President find as deplorable?
In the End
There are more than 27 days left to the general election. The polls are tight. Many people are motivated and others are simply angry. Romney raised more than 12 million dollars in the days after his electrifying performance. Most of the papers project that things might swing either to Obama or Romney. But most of those people also know that Obama and his people are not stupid. And like the Economist says, Romney does not have the facts on his side like Obama does. And so, many are probably putting more of their eggs in Obama’s basket. And under the circumstances, who are we to move them to another when we have been trumpeting an Obama victory since June this year?
Dennis Matanda,
Editor – [email protected]
