Africa’s Water Wars Have Begun

By Gregory Simpkins

As I have written about previously, as many as four billion people globally experience water shortages for at least one month a year, expected to rise to five billion by 2050. Currently, 25 percent of the population lives in countries facing extremely-high water stress. Climate change is exacerbating the problem, intensifying floods and droughts, shifting precipitation patterns and fueling sea level rise.

An estimated 1.5 billion people will live in African cities by 2050, more than double the number today. African cities – including unplanned urban areas and informal settlements – are already facing staggering challenges: poverty, the need for more and better jobs, and a lack of housing and basic infrastructure, all of which will be compounded by rapid urban growth.

The World Resources Institute in a May 11 2021 report presented as an example the city of Dire Dawa in Ethiopia, which is frequently hit by floods claiming the lives of hundreds, while most of its inhabitants have no access to clean water, and the drought in 2020 in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe, that pushed some families to sleep overnight in water queues, making it hard to adhere to pandemic guidelines for not only handwashing but also social distancing during the height of the COVID pandemic.

When people become desperate for drinking water, even tainted water is seen as a source of life. Unfortunately, drinking unsafe water leads to waterborne diseases such as botulism, cholera, e. coli, dysentery and typhoid fever.

These diseases affect large numbers of citizens and can retard economic development, divert government monies that could be spent in profitable pursuits and diminishes the productive population of countries.

Ghana, a star among African countries, is dependent on the Volta River for its hydroelectric output, but regular droughts make its production of electricity from the Akosombo Dam erratic and limit Ghana’s ability to sustain its economic growth.

Ahead of the United Nations 2023 Water Conference, the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) called for accelerated investments to help small-scale farmers in developing countries access and manage increasingly scarce water resources in the face of a changing climate and more extreme weather events.

“There is no food security without water security. Water is indispensable to produce food but small-scale farmers increasingly struggle to access the water they need to grow their crops and feed their animals, leading to human suffering, migration and conflict,” said Jyotsna Puri, IFAD Associate Vice-President, Strategy and Knowledge Department. “Solutions exists, but investments are needed to help millions of small-scale farmers access them.”

IFAD estimates that about 3.2 billion people overall live in agricultural areas with high to very high water shortages or scarcity of which 1.2 billion people – roughly one-sixth of the world’s population – live in severely water constrained agricultural areas. While small-scale farmers produce one third of the world’s food and up to 70 percent of the food produced in developing countries, they increasingly face water challenges due to climate change.

Since 2000, the number and duration of droughts has increased by 29 percent. Population growth causes an increased demand for water, which is also a key driver of water scarcity.

“The only solution is to make the best use of every single drop. Small water infrastructure, better soil and water management, and natural solutions such as agro-forestry can go a long way in ensuring small-scale farmers have the water they need,” added Puri. “We need to increase investments from the public and private sectors to accelerate the uptake of proven techniques, and local solutions.”

According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), despite a strong economic case for water investments, financing flows are not commensurate with investments needs. For example, in sub-Saharan Africa, although expanding small-scale irrigation can be profitable and benefit between 113 and 369 million rural people, access to finance and credit is a major barrier to access irrigation and water harvesting equipment, in addition to land tenure issues.

Water wars have begun

Water projects are among the largest public works projects known, and like any public works projects, they attract corruption. Unfortunately, corrupt water practices not only rob governments of income, but also prevents citizens from having access to water that should be available to them.

Corruption is estimated to raise the price of water services between 10 and 30 percent. Such unanticipated increases in the cost of providing safe drinking water means fulfilling the Millennium Development Goal of cutting in half the number of people without access to safe drinking water in African countries may not be reached.

Warnings of potential “water wars” have been sounded for several years and increasingly show signs of gathering critical mass in areas where rivers and lakes are shared by local communities and countries. Thirteen African countries already experience water stress or water scarcity, and 12 more are set to join their ranks by 2025. The most likely flash points are around the Nile, Niger, Volta and Zambezi rivers

Various sources have cited international conflicts over water resources. For example, the Nile runs through Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, and their combined populations – at current growth rates – could rise from today’s 150 million people to 340 million by 2050. Long before then, however, the long-running conflict over the Nile’s water could spark warfare.

As far back as 1991, Egypt warned that it was ready to use force to protect its access to the waters of the Nile. Less and less of the Nile’s water remains once the river reaches the sea.

The Niger River, which flows from Guinea through Mali to Nigeria, is vital for food, water and transport, especially to Mali, one of the world’s poorest countries. Pollution is making the Niger’s water increasingly unusable.

Southern Africa’s Zambezi River is one of the world’s most overused river systems. Nations such as Zambia and Zimbabwe compete fiercely to harness its water power, although at times there is heavy rains and flooding. Zimbabwe caused the region to experience the worst floods in recent history in 2000 when it opened the Kariba dam gates.

Ghana, a star among African countries, is dependent on the Volta River for its hydroelectric output, but regular droughts make its production of electricity from the Akosombo Dam erratic and limit Ghana’s ability to sustain its economic growth. Less output from the dam not only constrains Ghana’s ability to produce its own power, but also its ability to provide power to neighbors.

In some ways, economic development worsens limited water situations. Nearly two-thirds of Africa’s people earn their living in agriculture, which is the sector that uses the most water in Africa, accounting for an estimated 88 percent of water use.

Since its takes about a thousand tons of water to produce each ton of grain, any progress in agricultural output in Africa will further stress limited water supplies.

There are two other sources of conflict involving water in Africa. Thanks to colonial boundary-setting, which used rivers to mark national borders, shifting of rivers due to dwindling water flows can change borders and cause war. Several years ago, Eritrea and Ethiopia engaged in a destructive border war, and shooting broke out a few years later over the Bakassi Peninsula, whose territory has long been disputed by Nigeria and Cameroon.

Botswana and Namibia managed to avoid a shooting war over the disputed Sedudu/Kasikili Island in the Chobe River that divides them by resorting to, and so far accepting, a ruling by the International Court of Justice assigning ownership of the island to Botswana.

Inter-communal conflict over water threatens not only development but also any effective efforts at peacemaking among communities within countries. However, international conflicts over water between governments such as between Ethiopia and Egypt, threaten war. The international community must devote more than attention to this growing crisis of water conflict; it must devote the resources necessary to meet this challenge.

Gregory Simpkins, a longtime specialist in African policy development, is the Principal of 21st Century Solutions. He consults with organizations on African policy issues generally, especially in relating to the U.S. Government. He further acts as a consultant to the African Merchants Association, where he advises the Association in its efforts to stimulate an increase in trade between several hundred African Diaspora small and medium enterprises and their African partners.