The Nigerian Election

Unlike American politics where you are never really surprised, Africa can truly and even pleasantly surprise you. Retired General Muhammadu Buhari won the 2015 Nigerian Presidential election. He won! No one was more surprised that us here at The Habari Network. It’s not that we have no faith in democracy; we do. However, we had, honestly, expected that if Goodluck Jonathan was going to fail in dealing with Boko Haram or even fire his Central Bank governor – amongst other things – he, at least, would have had a plan for electoral victory. We thought he – Jonathan – would have either rigged the election after delaying the process, or done what Buhari himself did when he, in 1983, staged a short-lived military coup. Again, this sort of thing does not necessarily happen in societies as predictable as the United States. For example, just like we can easily extrapolate that the next president of the United States will be a Democrat, there’s no such luck in Africa. We neither expected Daniel Arap Moi to leave the Kenyan hot seat when he did, nor that huge historical surprise Flight Lieutenant John Jerry Rawling gave Ghana’s politics.

For their part, the Americans are so predictable and you can, in simple terms, say, for instance, that the Republicans know how to snatch victory from the jaws of their own futures. To illustrate, Mike Pence, a Republican who many expected to become the dark horse in a Republican primary during this 2016 contest period basically went and royally screwed himself out of the opportunity to become a United States president. Of course, the path to presidency for the Indiana Governor was already hard because of the Electoral College map and a formidable force field in Hillary Clinton, a Democrat. But like anyone will tell you, Pence did not need to sign some sort of law giving religious zealots the right to segregate against the LGBT community. It is already legal in Indiana – Pence’s state – to fire someone or refuse him or her certain rights if they’re of alternate sexuality. Besides, the truth is that these people did not present a clear and present danger to the Hoosiers, and in fact were not at the heart of that state’s recent HIV outbreak. And as far as we are concerned, Pence was competently handling things, but like a classic Republican Party apparatchik, culture wars of old came up and grabbed the man’s future from him. Now, almost all Republican presidential contenders are in the difficult position to go on the unnecessary defensive against a very unpopular move.

This long diversion into American politics is simply to illustrate the fact that there are very few ways to predict African politics. Nigerian society is as complex as any in the world. Africa’s largest economy – since its independence and the Biafra conflict – has had a whole host of complex dynamics – coups and military dictatorships galore. Just as millions of people were killed in that 1969 war, millions of oil dollars have been misappropriated and ended up in the arms of those that do not want to share the Nigerian National Cake. Those wounds have yet to be healed. Then, the fact that half of the country is Muslim while the other is Christian has, of recent, been a cause célèbre. It did not help Jonathan – a Christian – that Boko Haram was decimating areas that were already under Sharia Law – and he was feckless in dealing with a group that has connections to global terror.

Nonetheless, Jonathan probably completely underestimated the erosion effect of the Northern Nigeria conflict or his other official foibles. It did not help that he had also gone back on his promise not to run for the Presidency again, or let a Muslim be leader as agreed upon at the sudden and unexpected death of his predecessor. Of course, there’s a chance that Jonathan could have had more resources to play with if the oil markets and Nigerian coffers were not as respectively dire and empty as they currently stand. However, from what we know about African chief executives who want to stay in power, Jonathan’s heart was, definitely, not into this game. He, after all, nominated the largely competent Professor Attahiru Jega as Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission. Some have said he was playing fair without really understanding how unpopular he was. And if he had lost to Buhari in the mostly Muslim north, we could have understood. However, he lost in Lagos and parts of the South where you’d have expected him to have the requisite support.

Invariably, we are also extremely shocked that he was as careless as he was for getting into a spat with Olusegan Obasanjo – a godfather and former president of his People’s Democratic Party (PDP). After all, many a retired millionaire general still calls the shots from behind the scenes, and Obasanjo – a two-time president – was that pedigree incarnate! But then, there’s a chance that Jonathan gave this election process the best he could. Whatever the case, we now have another former president as leader of Africa’s largest economy. Perhaps, he will be more progressive than Mr. Jonathan. Perhaps, the ghost of Fela Kuti, the man General Buhari harassed excessively, will haunt him and help Nigeria remember that water get no enemy. That unlike the Americans who have all these set in stone aspects, Africa is still the one place capable of pleasant surprises and more importantly, continuing the process of governance reform – like is happening in Kenya, in Rwanda and who knows – in South Africa where we expect so much more.

So, good luck to the General. May he have better luck than the last time, and may he serve out his whole term. After all, if Obasanjo could do it again, so can he. More importantly, the world is expecting so much from Nigeria and the 73-year-old Buhari. Goodbye to Goodluck. Since you so graciously conceded, may Mo Ibrahim provide you with some sort of reward! Or maybe, you will not need these resources if you spent that extended electoral delay stuffing your own mattress. Most of all, thank you for helping Africa on the path to the kind of American predictability we want. God knows that a boring election is so much better than one full of unholy and unnecessary drama.

The Habari Network Editorial Team
April 3, 2014