Terrorism threatens African development

By Gregory Simpkins

Since the days of African independence, the continent has been bedeviled by internal and external conflicts. There have been coups like the recent one in Guinea Bissau and the many successful and unsuccessful attempts during the 1960s-70s, and ongoing internal conflicts over resources, such as in Nigeria’s Niger Delta and the post-election violence in Kenya in 2007. Then there are the conflicts between nations, such as the Uganda-Tanzania conflict (1978-79), and those internal conflicts that involve other countries, such as the current Tigray war in Ethiopia.

However, the threat of terrorist attacks is a bane to even relatively peaceful nations. When al-Shabaab attacked the Westgate Mall shopping center in Kenya in 2013, there undoubtedly was a negative impact on tourism to Kenya, especially given the 2015 shooting at Garissa University College, the 2019 hotel bombing in Nairobi, and the continuing threat of attacks by al-Shabaab.

Even now, the U.S. Department of State listed Kenya on October 4 as having a Level 2 travel advisory due to crime, terrorism, civil unrest, and kidnapping.

“Terrorist attacks have occurred with little or no warning, targeting Kenyan and foreign government facilities, tourist locations, transportation hubs, hotels, resorts, markets/shopping malls, and places of worship. Terrorist acts have included armed assaults, suicide operations, bomb/grenade attacks, and kidnappings,” the advisory states.

It is difficult to quantify what Kenya has lost in total tourism because of this warning and those posted by other countries. Kenya has consistently received more than two million tourists annually, albeit with periodic slumps for various reasons, including the COVID-19 lockdown on travel. The Government of Kenya has plans to reach the level of three million tourists by 2030, and to achieve this, the government must ensure the threat of terrorism is minimized.

Many of those tourists are potential investors and partners of Kenyan businesses. Moreover, anyone wanting to do significant business in Kenya would face insurance risk concerns, especially for any facilities built there. There is no quantifying what investment Kenya could have had but for terrorism concerns.

Not long after the Westgate Mall attack, the International Crisis Group produced a report recommending how to handle terrorism without worsening the situation. The report reads: “Authorities should avoid blanket arrests and extrajudicial killings, involve local leaders in efforts to tackle recruitment while taking steps to address broader grievances that al-Shabaab taps into in its narrative, including the political and economic exclusion of Muslim minorities in East Africa.”

These recommendations jibe with a subsequent United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) report on what leads people to join extremist groups. In the report, Journey to Extremism in Africa: Drivers, Incentives and the Tipping Point for Recruitment, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres stated the following: “I am convinced that the creation of open, equitable, inclusive, and pluralist societies, based on the full respect of human rights and with economic opportunities for all, represents the most tangible and meaningful alternative to violent extremism.”

Acknowledging the evidence base concerning the causes, consequences, and trajectories informing violent extremism – and what works in preventing it – remains weak globally. The UNDP report states that this is particularly true in Africa compared to other regions. Nevertheless, the UNDP report says that disaffection with the government is highest by significant margins among the Journey to Extremism respondents who violent extremist groups recruited across several key indicators.

Grievances

“These include the belief that government only looks after the interests of a few; low level of trust in government authorities; and experience, or willingness to report experience, of bribe-paying. Grievances against security actors, as well as politicians, are particularly marked, with an average of 78 percent rating low levels of trust in the police, politicians and military,” according to the UNDP report.

“Those most susceptible to recruitment express a significantly lower degree of confidence in the potential for democratic institutions to deliver progress or meaningful change. Meanwhile, positive experience of effective service provision is confirmed as a source of resilience: respondents who believed that governments’ provision of education was either ‘excellent’ or ‘improving’ were less likely to be a member of a violent extremist group within the sample.”

The UNDP reports that Africa faces a unique vulnerability to violent extremism that is shaped by persistent underdevelopment and incomplete peacebuilding and state-building in particular regions. It further cited immense challenges governments face in delivering peace and stability and ensuring that the pace and benefits of growth keep up with the expansion of the most youthful population in the world.

In several areas of Africa, conflict over resources, religion, territory and other factors make them susceptible to terrorism, exacerbating existing tensions and conflicts. At the top of the list is the nearly two-year-long conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region. Previously considered a high-flying African economy, Ethiopia has become a humanitarian and human rights concern. U.S. sanctions, including suspension from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) program, have hindered commerce and investment. An ongoing terrorist threat from al-Shabaab and ISIS from Somalia is a primary concern for the Ethiopian government, and the Tigray conflict distracts enough attention from this extremist threat.

Terrorism is often stimulated and facilitated by outside actors, so while African governments must do better in addressing this plague, international actors must also do their part. The impact of terrorism in Africa affects more than the continent and must be dealt with as the existential threat that it is.

Cameroon’s civil conflict has produced numerous reports of human rights abuses in the English-speaking southern region. Attacks by Boko Haram and ISIS-West Africa have contributed to the chaos in regions of Cameroon, especially in the Far North Region, which has not gotten the attention of the Ethiopian conflict but is no less destructive for that country. A business climate already limited by corruption and weak governance has seen further trepidation by investors despite the accelerated completion of development projects because the country hosted the Africa Cup of Nations soccer tournament in early 2022.

Nigeria has been rife with terrorist and extremist threats. A Fulani extremist element has run rampant in northern Nigeria, which also is beleaguered by Boko Haram and a Shiite threat that has been genuinely concerning to the region’s Sunni majority. Meanwhile, northern extremists have targeted Ibos and have sparked a secessionist movement reminiscent of the Biafra conflict. Furthermore, the southern threat of terrorist-criminal groups has not been extinguished despite efforts to mollify them with government payouts. Kidnappings have continued by terrorist groups and criminal gangs, which has chilled investment interest in Nigeria, already experiencing a reluctance of foreign oil companies to expand potentially lucrative onshore drilling due to security concerns.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DR Congo) has seen almost constant conflict in decades that threatened to tear the country. Two civil wars have dragged in many of the country’s neighbors. Armed actors in civil struggles in neighboring Rwanda and Burundi have spilled over into DR Congo and, along with Ugandan rebel groups, produced at least two dozen terrorist elements that have made areas of eastern DR Congo nearly ungovernable. Therefore, mining critical minerals on which the outside world depends has become ever more perilous.

Mozambique, a fast-rising economy in southern Africa, has experienced almost Biblical troubles – from natural disasters to disease outbreaks to terrorism. The prospect of abundant energy supplies in that country has been threatened by exceedingly violent terrorist activity that would have doomed a significant project in the Cabo Delgado region without international security assistance and interventions. It is hoped that such aid will have a long-term beneficial impact on a country with largely untapped natural resources.

There are many reasons why African business climates are not attractive to foreign investors. However, products continue to be sold to the continent’s growing middle class, with the African Continental Free Trade (AfCFTA) area promising to harmonize standards and regulations to make trade in Africa more attractive. Yet, terrorism is the dark cloud on the horizon that must be effectively addressed if the dreams of industrialization and economic development are to become a reality. Catching up with the rest of the world in manufacturing will require enormous sums to be invested. Still, security concerns will put a hold on investors’ wallets, drive away technologically savvy workers and make life a living hell for citizens across Africa.

Terrorism is often stimulated and facilitated by outside actors, so while African governments must do better in addressing this plague, international actors must also do their part. The impact of terrorism in Africa affects more than the continent and must be dealt with as the existential threat that it is.

Gregory Simpkins, a longtime specialist in African policy development, is the Principal of 21st Century Solutions. He consults with organizations on African policy issues generally, especially in relating to the U.S. Government. He also serves as Managing Director for the Morganthau Stirling consulting firm, where he oversees program development and implementation. He further acts as a consultant to the African Merchants Association, where he advises the Association in its efforts to stimulate an increase in trade between several hundred African Diaspora small and medium enterprises and their African partners.