Can Donald Trump Improve US-Africa Relations?

By Gregory Simpkins

When Donald Trump won re-election as President last November, there were some in Africa and the Diaspora who expressed continued bitterness over his alleged use of the term “shithole countries”, which he has denied saying. Others were happy to have the sanctions-happy previous regime gone.

AGOA Suspensions Under Joe Biden

During Joe Biden’s term in office, several countries were suspended from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) trade program, including for reasons having nothing to do with the fairness of their trade process or corruption.

For example, Uganda was suspended for having an overly harsh law concerning LBGTQ citizens. Over the past several years, both pro-LBGTQ and anti-LBGTQ factions tried to influence the Ugandan government on the fate of that community.

US Funding for Social Issues in Africa

Under the reforms undertaken by the Trump administration, widespread support for LBGTQ organizations and principles were discovered worldwide, including US$5 million for that issue in Uganda.

When my work in Africa was funded by the National Endowment for Democracy back in the early 1990s, their staff was proud to tout their support for organizations on the fringes of society. However, reports are coming out now that suggest that such support was due as much to the effort to galvanize anti-government segments of society than to help them to survive to protect their interests.

Former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, recently told African officials that it is the job of the US government to provide for the needs of its people just as African governments bear the same responsibility for theirs.

Downtrodden elements of society could then be built into a coalition to unseat a government unpopular with their sponsors – either through elections or using more drastic measures.

Presumably, such support for those programs is now ending under the new regime, which is now uncovering such programming. Whether this supposition about gathering internal elements for a government overthrow is true or not, the very idea would be unsettling to developing country governments that run afoul of the major powers of the world – not that it is a total surprise.

Migration Policies and Refugee Treatment

Some in Africa and the Diaspora have lamented stemming the flow of illegal migrants, which included Africans among the global wave of undocumented entrants. Africans and others wishing to come into the country legally have long experienced problems.

Meanwhile, Afghans fleeing the Taliban were helped to come to the United States and given significant assistance. That cannot sit well with the many Africans with credentials fleeing just as terrifying conditions in their home country who want to relocate to the United States but haven’t received such preferential treatment.

Will the US Resist Meddling in African Affairs?

Will the new administration resist the temptation to meddle in the internal affairs of governments it doesn’t like? We shall see.

Afghan asylees have been provided cash assistance through Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) or Supplemental Security Income (SSI), health insurance through Medicaid and food assistance through Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and may also be eligible for cash assistance, medical assistance, employment preparation, job placement, English language training and other services offered through the Office of Refugee Resettlement. European countries are doing all they can to discourage and turn away African refugees.

Will the United States do better?

The Impact of USAID’s Shutdown on Africa

There has been a surprisingly large segment in Africa willing to give the incoming United States government a chance to show its good will, but that might be complicated by the immediate impact of the impending shutdown of the US Agency for International Development (USAID). This agency, which spends an estimated US$40 billion annually, is the main source of humanitarian aid as well as development assistance.

In its haste to root out alleged corruption and trim government spending as expeditiously as possible, the messaging has been confusing to say the least. At first, the word was that all USAID disbursements would be immediately halted.

The Secretary of State Marco Rubio, currently in charge of what remains of USAID, said missions overseas were being consulted to identify and designate programs that will be exempted from the sweeping stop-work orders. Again, the weeks ahead will tell the tale of how well this is being handled.

A Call for African Self-Reliance

There are those who say African governments should not complain about any US aid freeze because it is their responsibility to cater to the needs of their own people. Former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, recently told African officials that it is the job of the US government to provide for the needs of its people just as African governments bear the same responsibility for theirs.

Kenyatta refers to the current situation as a “wake-up call” for African leaders to use the resources at their disposal to provide for the needs of their countries. Writing on our website, Ajay Wasserman, the Group Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Fio Capital Group, a private family office and investment holding company based in Pretoria, echoed Kenyatta’s call for increased self-reliance.

“Recent policy shifts under Donald Trump’s administration have unveiled a hard truth: Africa remains vulnerable to external political changes. From the reinstatement of the anti-abortion “gag rule” disrupting reproductive healthcare to the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and the freezing of foreign aid, the ripple effects across the continent are undeniable,” Wasserman wrote.

“Yet, these challenges present an undeniable opportunity – an opportunity for Africa to redefine its trajectory and take ownership of its future. The question is: Can Africa pivot from dependence to self-sufficiency?“

Can the US-Africa Partnership Be Revitalized?

If handled cooperatively, this could facilitate the US-African partnership we envisioned when creating the Prosper Africa initiative during the first Trump administration. The African Continental Free Trade Area offers the kind of vehicle or platform necessary under which a cooperative partnership can take shape.

Of course, that requires African governments to work together more cooperatively than they do now and finally cast off the remaining vestiges of divide-and-conquer rule from colonial times. There must be a resolution to the longstanding tribal grievances and colonially demarcated borders that have divided African governments and led to repeated conflicts that undermine efforts at continental unity.

The Effects of Trade Policies on Africa

In threatening worldwide tariffs on various elements of global trade, the Trump administration must be cognizant of the collateral impact on African and other developing countries. When sanctions were placed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, seemingly little thought had been given to what it would do to African countries, for example, who sourced grain and fertilizer from either Russia or Ukraine or both.

Thus far, South Africa is the only Africa country being punished – that case because of its land expropriation program. An aid suspension has been envisioned to punish the South African government for planning to forcibly seize land from its current white owners despite the way their ancestors seized it from the original owners generations ago.

Trump’s Potential Approach to Africa

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa says no expropriation has taken place and has appealed to Elon Musk, the driving force behind the Trump Department of Government Efficiency. However, he seems unaware that Musk, who was born in South Africa and left as a teenager, has referred to the old anti-white slogan “one settler, one bullet.”

That sounds like someone who still has a grievance with black South Africans. He undoubtedly would be joined in opposition to white land seizures by those who only look at the current situation and not the history behind it.

Donald Trump is a populist and not a traditional conservative, although he espouses conservative positions. He seems to have learned from his first term to not wholeheartedly accept the uninformed opinions of some white American conservatives.

If he can get past their reflexive reverse discrimination stances and look at complicated African situations in their entirety, then mutually beneficial US-African relationships can be formed and implemented. We will have to wait and see how this plays out.

Gregory Simpkins, a longtime specialist in African policy development, is the Principal of 21st Century Solutions. He consults with organizations on African policy issues generally, especially in relating to the U.S. Government. He further acts as a consultant to the African Merchants Association, where he advises the Association in its efforts to stimulate an increase in trade between several hundred African Diaspora small and medium enterprises and their African partners.