Ethiopia port search sparks crisis

By Gregory Simpkins

It is said that necessity is the mother of invention but that desperate times call for desperate measures. Well Ethiopia has a desperate need for certain port access, and in pursuing this need, they have selected a solution they must have at least suspected would lead to a negative reaction from their neighbor Somalia.

My fellow Habari Network blogger, Fidel Owusu, explained in a 2023 post how Ethiopia came to have its current port issue:

“The secession of Eritrea from Ethiopia in the early 1990s technically made the latter the largest landlocked country in terms of population size in Africa and the world. It was clear that one of the major reasons Ethiopia had resisted the independence of Eritrea was the fact that its access to the Red Sea ports was going to depend on the whims and caprices of a smaller neighboring state it could not predict.

“Last year (2022), the Prime Minister of Ethiopia made the region nervous when he implicitly stated the country could use force to access the coast if peaceful means failed. Not that the country does not get its imports – as it uses the Djibouti corridor to get them – but has been due to the country’s quest for a secure port under its control. It has the largest economy in the East and Horn of Africa regions of Africa.”

In late 2023, Djibouti joined Eritrea and Somalia in denying Ethiopia direct port access – this despite an existing deal for as much as US$7 billion a year for a natural gas pipeline from the Ogaden to a port complex on the Red Sea in Djibouti.

After unsuccessfully exploring the most obvious port arrangements, Ethiopia then got creative and went to Somaliland to arrange a port deal. As the BBC reported on 8 January, the exact wording of the deal signed by the leaders of Ethiopia and Somaliland was not made public, which is a problem as there are differing versions of what the two sides agreed in the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).

According to the news network, while the MoU is a statement of intent rather than a legally binding agreement, what seems clear is that Somaliland is ready to grant Ethiopia access to the sea for commercial traffic through a port, although it is not clear which port that would be. There are reports, however, that the agreement involves 20 kilometers (12.42 miles) around the Red Sea port of Berbera.

There is also a military aspect, the BBC reported. Somaliland has said it could lease a section of the coast to Ethiopia’s navy, a detail that was confirmed by Addis Ababa. In return, Somaliland would get a share in Ethiopia Airlines, the country’s successful national carrier.

In November 2023, Somalia joined the East African Community, a move expected to boost economic growth in the country, but which also ties it into regional economic planning.

Recognition of Somaliland

Where things get sticky, according to the BBC, is whether Ethiopia said it would recognize Somaliland as an independent state – something that no other country has done in the 30 years since the former British protectorate said it was leaving Somalia. On the day of the signing, Somaliland’s President Muse Bihi Abdi said the agreement included a section stating that Ethiopia would recognize Somaliland as an independent country at some point in the future.

Ethiopia has not confirmed this. Instead, in its attempt to clarify what was in the MoU, the government on January 3 said the deal included “provisions…to make an in-depth assessment towards taking a position regarding the efforts of Somaliland to gain recognition.”

Somaliland recognition is an extremely sensitive issue for Somalia, which it fervently defends as an integral part of Somalia. This region is bordered by Djibouti to the northwest, Ethiopia to the south and west and Somalia proper to the east. The Government of Somaliland regards itself as the successor state to British Somaliland. The briefly independent State of Somaliland united from 1960 to 1991 with the Trust Territory of Somaliland (formerly Italian Somaliland) to form the Somali Republic.

Recognition of Somaliland as an independent state has been under consideration by members of the international community for quite some time while Somalia degenerated into conflict in the 1990s, becoming one of the most unstable and dangerous places on earth. Since 1991, Somaliland has been governed by what have been considered democratically elected governments. However, no nation moved forward with recognition so as to not further destabilize Somalia. Currently, it is internationally recognized by just one entity – Taiwan – itself a source of question about its own international recognition.

The international community has devoted significant attention and resources over the past couple of decades to facilitate stability in Somalia, and that effort appears to be paying off. The United Nations Security Council in December 2023 lifted a three-decade-long arms embargo on Somalia that was put in place to cut the flow of weapons to feuding warlords after a civil war broke out despite the continuing danger of unauthorized leakage of arms to al Shabaab and other terrorist elements in the region.

Moreover, in December 2023 the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA) approved the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative Completion Point for Somalia, providing total debt service savings for the country of US$4.5 billion. Following HIPC Completion Point, Somalia’s external debt has fallen from 64 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018 to less than 6 percent of GDP by end 2023. This debt relief will facilitate access to critical additional financial resources that will help Somalia strengthen its economy, reduce poverty, and promote job creation.

In November 2023, Somalia joined the East African Community, a move expected to boost economic growth in the country, but which also ties it into regional economic planning.

So now is a particularly bad time for an Ethiopian agreement with Somaliland when the Somali government has not agreed to grant it the port access it has sought.

Why couldn’t there have been some diplomacy applied by Ethiopia’s trading partners to resolve this matter before it got to this point?

Diplomacy not an option?

As expected, Somalia has reacted strongly against the agreement. BBC reported that Somalia described the deal as an act of “aggression” that was an “impediment to… peace and stability” and recalled its ambassador from Addis Ababa.

Subsequently, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud stepped up the rhetoric saying: “We will defend our country, we will defend it by all means necessary and seek the support of any ally willing to help us,” according to the news service, which also stated that he called on youths “to prepare for the defence of our country”. He further signed a law nullifying the agreement.

Even in Somaliland, there was a negative reaction to the deal in some quarters. Somaliland Defence Minister Abdiqani Mohamoud Ateye resigned saying that cabinet ministers should have been consulted over a deal that Somaliland struck with Ethiopia that could see it leasing part of its coastline to its landlocked neighbor.

That Ethiopia desperately requires secure, sufficient access to the sea for its trade is not a secret, and one wonders why things had to get to this crisis point when it involves not only Ethiopia and Somalia but also has broader global trade and logistical implications. Why couldn’t there have been some diplomacy applied by Ethiopia’s trading partners to resolve this matter before it got to this point? How did they think Ethiopian goods would reach them without ongoing, secure port access?

Both the US and the African Union have backed the territorial integrity of Somalia and taken the lead in urging all parties to cool tensions. As we say in this country, that’s like locking the barn door after the horse already got out. Now there is a diplomatic mess to clean up that could have been avoided, and a possible conflict that needn’t have developed in the first place.

Gregory Simpkins, a longtime specialist in African policy development, is the Principal of 21st Century Solutions. He consults with organizations on African policy issues generally, especially in relating to the U.S. Government. He further acts as a consultant to the African Merchants Association, where he advises the Association in its efforts to stimulate an increase in trade between several hundred African Diaspora small and medium enterprises and their African partners.