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Mugabe’s failing health unsettles Zimbabwe politics
Mugabe went to Singapore for a medical check-up about two weeks ago, a privately owned newspaper in Zimbabwe reported, saying it was the seventh such visit this year by the president, who denies he is suffering from cancer.
“The health of Mugabe is deteriorating and ZANU-PF’s success at the next elections is not assured unless it builds up a war chest and relies on coercion,” said Anne Fruhauf, an expert on Africa at the Eurasia Group political risk consultancy.
ZANU-PF leaders fear that if Mugabe dies in office or his health forces him to quit before settling the succession battle, the party could disintegrate or the army could be tempted to take over.
Zimbabwe has pushed hard in the last few months to have foreign firms, mostly mining firms and banks, to abide by a law to turn over a majority stake of their holdings to locals.
Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), forced into a unity government with ZANU-PF after a disputed 2008 election marred by violence, said the empowerment law has undermined investor confidence and could strangle a fragile recovery in an economy crushed by hyperinflation under ZANU-PF management.
But whatever the potential problems for the economy as a whole, the income generated from implementing the law could be crucial for ZANU-PF and its supporters.
“The law is little more than an extortion scheme, with rival players offering companies ‘protection’ in return for pay and equity stakes,” Fruhauf said.
Mining firms risk losing their claims in the country with the world’s second-largest platinum reserves if they do not play along. Many are waiting for a future government more amenable to international investment before they ramp up production, analysts have said.
The MDC has a lead in opinion polls, and ZANU-PF likely needs cash to finance the tactics it has been accused of using to win elections, hiring armed thugs to intimidate voters and rigging ballot boxes.
