Guyana poised to break $1 billion in oil and gas revenue this year

As the burgeoning Guyanese offshore oil and gas industry goes from strength to strength, powered by the Stabroek block, government revenue from domestic production is on track to break the US$1 billion mark this year and accelerate to US$7.5 billion annually in 2030, according to Rystad Energy research. This year is set to be a turning point for the Georgetown government to start capitalizing on the vast reserves in the offshore field, with revenues more than doubling over 2021 levels. Low breakevens and below-average emissions intensity in the Stabroek will propel Guyana from a relatively small producer to a global leader in the coming years, solidifying the country’s position as a competitive and policy-friendly player for offshore production.

The government’s take from the production is expected to increase until 2025, reaching US$4.2 billion annually. Triggered by a forecasted drop in oil prices and continued spending on the field’s development, government revenues will fall to US$2.4 billion in 2027. Still, production growth is set to accelerate, with revenue momentum resuming as new pre-Final Investment Decision (FID) projects are sanctioned and brought online, leading to peak government revenues of US$16 billion in 2036. These projections do not factor in as-yet undiscovered resources.

The recent spate of prolific discoveries and the steady pace of FIDs position the Guyanese government to reap the rewards of these finds with cumulative revenues totaling US$157 billion by 2040.

Guyana is the global leader in total offshore discoveries since 2015, with 11.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent, amounting to 18 percent of discovered resources and 32 percent of discovered oil. Of the total, a whopping 9.6 billion barrels are oil, far outpacing the US in second place with a comparatively small 2.8 billion barrels. The Stabroek block accounts for all of these finds, but recent discoveries in other areas show the potential for growth elsewhere.