Opposition leader is now favorite to win Kenya presidential vote

Bloomberg | Kenyan opposition leader Raila Odinga, who’s running for president for a fifth time, drew ahead of rival candidate Deputy President William Ruto in an opinion poll before an election in August.

Odinga is favored by 39 percent of voters, compared with 35 percent for Ruto, Nairobi-based pollster Tifa Research said in an emailed statement on Wednesday. About 14 percent of respondents have yet to decide on their choice, and another 9 percent is unwilling to say who their preferred candidate is, the company said.

A survey by Tifa in April showed Ruto was the favorite to win the election with 39 percent support, compared with 32 percent for Odinga. The most recent poll was conducted after Odinga and Ruto in recent days named Martha Karua and Rigathi Gachagua as their running mates respectively.

Odinga “is somewhat more popular than Ruto among older Kenyans,” Tifa said, “while more younger than older people are yet to make up their mind.”

A run-off contest is “very unlikely” unless other contenders, such as former Deputy President Kalonzo Musyoka, garner at least 5 percent support, it said.

To succeed President Uhuru Kenyatta, who is stepping down after two terms, the winner needs to win the majority vote and at least a quarter of the ballots cast in half of Kenya’s 47 counties.

Tifa Research interviewed 1,719 respondents on May 17. The survey has a margin error of plus or minus 2.34 percent, it said.