Despite recession, Nigeria remains Africa’s largest economy

The Nigerian economy is forecast to expand more rapidly over the next decade‚ moving it from the world’s 32nd largest economy to 21st.

Nigeria will extend its lead over South Africa as Africa’s largest economy‚ growing to double South Africa’s gross domestic product (GDP) measured in US dollars within 10 years‚ BMI Research said in a note on late last week.

BMI’s core scenario forecasts Nigeria’s overall vantage over South Africa increasing rapidly over the next decade‚ moving it from the world’s 32nd largest economy to 21st. Meanwhile‚ South Africa will fall in the global rankings‚ reducing its dominance in the region.

Nigeria overtook South Africa as Africa’s largest economy in 2012.

Measured by per capita GDP‚ however‚ individual South Africans will remain richer than Nigerians‚ the Fitch subsidiary concluded.
“Nigeria is a country of some 187 million people in 2016‚ which we anticipate will rise to 234 million by 2025. As such‚ its gross domestic product per capita is far below that enjoyed in South Africa with its population of 53-million‚” the report said.

Nigeria’s GDP per capita is US$1‚865 versus US$5‚164 in South Africa. Over the years to 2025 this spread will remain broadly the same according to BMI’s forecast‚ “and in many respects South Africa will remain by far the wealthier country” its report said.

“Despite our forecast that Nigeria will endure a 0.8 percent contraction in 2016‚ and the large sell-off in the naira following the Central Bank of Nigeria’s decision to allow it to free float from June 20‚ we do not expect that South Africa will overtake it to become Africa’s biggest economy again‚” BMI’s report said.

According to BMI, the South African economy is projected to decline by 0.5 percent in 2016.

Source: eNCA