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Election 2012: Obama, Romney in dead heat – Obama has upper hand
He began moving some staff from North Carolina, a one-time battleground where he now has a solid lead, to other swing states this week. The former Massachusetts governor’s campaign also bolstered its television advertising in Iowa and Wisconsin, where polls indicate Obama has slim leads.
The RealClearPolitics average of polls gives Obama a lead of at least four percentage points in states that account for 237 electoral votes, while Romney enters the final stretch with an edge of that size in states that represent 206 electoral votes.
That leaves a reduced battlefield of eight toss-up states and 95 electoral votes, all won by Obama in the 2008 election – Colorado (9 electoral votes), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18), Virginia (13) and Wisconsin (10).
In the last two weeks Romney has moved into a small lead or a virtual tie with Obama in Florida, Colorado, New Hampshire and Virginia, which together account for 55 electoral votes. A sweep of all four still would leave Romney nine electoral votes short of victory – a big reason why the race is boiling down to the battle in Ohio.
A win in Ohio would put Romney over the top and give him some margin of error to lose other states that are still in play. If he does not win Ohio, either Wisconsin or a combination of Nevada and Iowa still could be enough to win, although Obama, in addition to having slim leads in Wisconsin and Iowa, also leads in Nevada.
“Things have moved consistently in Romney’s direction, but he still hasn’t unlocked the gates to enough places yet,” said pollster Thomas Riehle of YouGov, a market research company that is conducting polling in swing states. “Romney needs more good news before he’s a safe bet to win.”
