Obama is still electoral favorite

Obama is still a favorite. That being said, he is dangerously close to the tipping point between a clear favorite and a struggling contender.

Obama’s has 67% chance of winning the election in 2012 if his approval ratings stay at 42%.

Obama’s chances of winning improve to 90% if his approval numbers increase to 50%.

In contrast, if Obama’s approval numbers were to drop to 39%, as Gallup has had him over the last few weeks, his probability of winning would fall to 54%. Put differently, we would have a wide-open election if Obama’s approval numbers fall below 40%.

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