Politics
Looking for Michael Sata’s successor as president of Zambia
Infighting in the ruling party continues, with ethnicity playing a key role. President Michael Sata’s heavy hand in succession wrangles within the Patriotic Front (PF) appears to have calmed the storm, but the ruling party is more fragile than ever. Since mid-2013, the PF has seen a struggle for the succession.
According to the Zambian constitution, Sata is eligible for re-election in 2016, but a combination of old age and ill-health are likely to force one of Zambia’s more charismatic politicians into retirement. Sata, who rode to victory based on campaign promises to be closer to the people, is rarely seen in public, fuelling speculations about his health.
The Bemba ethnic group of President Sata has a majority in the PF. Most key government positions are held by people from northern Zambia, where the Bemba originate. Sata, with the support of key confidants like vice-president Guy Scott, influential Zambia Post newspaper editor Fred M’membe, director of public prosecution Mutembo Nchito and presidential spokesman George Chellah, is strongly opposed to a Bemba succession.
PF general secretary Wynter Kabimba is thus highly favoured to take over. Finance minister Alexander Chikwanda, former defence minister Geoffrey Bwalya Mwamba and sports minister Chishimba Kambwili oppose Kabimba. The succession wrangles in the PF reached a head in the third quarter of 2013 when Chikwanda was acting president while Sata attended the United Nations General Assembly in New York.
Murder in the street
Chikwanda is believed to be interested in taking over from Sata and has been galvanising the anti-Kabimba group. However, Mwamba, a wealthy businessman, is often seen as the flagbearer of Bemba interests within the PF. The anti-Kabimba wave was so intense that a ruling party member was murdered last November as heavily armed PF factions clashed in Lusaka.
Sata reacted strongly to the violence, denouncing the anti-Kabimba grouping. On 22 December 2013, Mwamba announced his resignation as defence minister, citing differences between Sata and the Bemba royal establishment. President Sata opposes the current chief for the Bembas, Henry Kanyanta Sosala, who is Mwamba’s uncle. But sources within the ruling party say Mwamba’s resignation was due to Sata’s support for Kabimba.
Kabimba, who hails from Central Province, lacks clout within the ruling party, and his opponents often accuse him of arrogance and being anti-Bemba. Unlike Sata, who enjoys an easy rapport with ordinary citizens – especially the youth and the rural residents – Kabimba lacks charisma.
The PF remains fragmented as Kabimba continues to cleanse the party of his perceived opponents and their supporters. The politically volatile Copperbelt Province, the bedrock of the PF, is host to chaotic scenes at ongoing elections within the party structures that are symptomatic of the growing rift within the ruling party.
