Politics
Latest numbers indicate that African American voter turnout rate surpassed Whites in Nov 2012
In recent weeks, Republican leaders have urged a “year-round effort” to engage African American and other minority voters, describing a grim future if their party does not expand its core support beyond White males.
The 2012 data suggest Romney was a particularly weak GOP candidate, unable to motivate White voters let alone attract significant African American or Latino support. Obama’s personal appeal and the slowly improving economy helped overcome doubts and spur record levels of minority voters in a way that may not be easily replicated for Democrats soon.
Romney would have erased Obama’s nearly 5 million-vote victory margin and narrowly won the popular vote if voters had turned out as they did in 2004, according to Frey’s analysis. Then, White turnout was slightly higher and African American voting lower.
More significantly, the battleground states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida and Colorado would have tipped in favor of Romney, handing him the presidency if the outcome of other states remained the same.
“The 2012 turnout is a milestone for African Americans and a huge potential turning point,” said Andra Gillespie, a political science professor at Emory University who has written extensively on Black politicians. “What it suggests is that there is an ‘Obama effect’ where people were motivated to support Barack Obama. But it also means that Black turnout may not always be higher, if future races aren’t as salient.”
Whit Ayres, a GOP consultant who is advising GOP Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, a possible 2016 presidential contender, says the last election reaffirmed that the Republican Party needs “a new message, a new messenger and a new tone.” Change within the party need not be “lock, stock and barrel,” Ayres said, but policy shifts such as GOP support for broad immigration legislation will be important to woo minority voters over the longer term.
“It remains to be seen how successful Democrats are if you don’t have Barack Obama at the top of the ticket,” he said.
