Will Andrew Holness call an early election?

Andrew Holness (pictured), is the presumed next prime minister of Jamaica. He will have to seek his own mandate if he is to have the moral authority to tackle the many challenges the country will continue to face when he replaces out-going prime minister Bruce Golding.

Holness will have to call elections by December 2012, however all inidicators point to there being an election well before the December date. Jamaica Labor Party (JLP) insiders assert that the economic outlook is prodding the JLP and Holness to an early election – if they are to retain power.

Here below are the different scenarios – assuming that Mr. Holness is sworn in as prime minister before the end of this month:

– November – December 2011

This is the time period that Holness would have assumed office, and would be constitutionally empowered to announce an election date. He may choose to do so during the (JLP) conference on November 20.

– January-March 2012

Holness would have had time to begin implementing his changes with regards to government policy, and allow the JLP to purge itself of any “stains” left by the public’s disappointment with Golding. By then, any problems with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) should also be resolved – thus removing one of the bullets from the People’s National Party‘s (PNP) election gun.

– April-June 2012

At this point, Jamaicans would now have a clear indication of the direction Holness is steering the country. This could either work for or against him and the JLP. Holness could be riding a wave of popularity, however, the budget will undoubtedly have some painful measures. It would not be politically smart for Holness to face the electorate during this period.

– July-September 2012

At this point the electorate is now accustomed to the budget measures. If the measures introduced by this budget are not too harsh, the JLP and Holness would have gained enough traction to defeat PNP, however, if the measures are quite severe, Holness and the JLP would be certain to suffer defeat at the hands of Portia Simpson Miller and the PNP.

-October-December 2012

At this point Holness would been in office for one year. All his failings and successes would have been seen by the electorate. Is this a risk that he could take? Unless Jamaica discovers oil or someone in the PNP challenges Simpson Miller and that party implodes, Holness would be leading his party on to the opposition benches after any general election during this period.

With contributions from the Gleaner.