Politics
Election 2012: The African American vote could make the difference in November
African American voters. PHOTO/Lynne Sladky/AP
(Reuters) – High voter turnout among African Americans helped get President Barack Obama elected in 2008 but a black rights group fears even a small drop in turnout in the November election might cause him to lose or struggle in several key states.
Leaders of the National Urban League, a civil rights group, released a report on Tuesday that said although blacks voted overwhelmingly for Obama in 2008, if the number of African American voters drops even 5 percentage points this year it could tip the outcome in some vital states.
If that voter turnout rate returned to the 2004 election levels – 60 percent compared with nearly 65 percent in 2008 – the report estimated that Obama, the nation’s first black president, would lose in North Carolina and would have a tough time in Ohio and Virginia.
“We wanted to point out that turnout makes a difference,” said Marc Morial, president of the National Urban League. “And that African American turnout particularly, in a number of states, could make the ultimate difference.”
(More: African Americans silent as voting rights threatened)
Obama has a 6-point lead over his Republican rival Mitt Romney four months ahead of the November 6 election, a Reuters/Ipsos national poll showed last week.
A USA TODAY/Gallup poll of 12 swing states – including North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia – on July 8 showed the pair essentially tied as Obama had a narrow 2-point lead.
Chanelle Hardy, executive director of the National Urban League Policy Institute, said the analysis also showed that in 2008 more African Americans between 18 and 25 voted compared with whites of the same age group for the first time.
