Politics
Election 2012: Obama stronger in swing states as economy improves
There currently are 438 members of the House and 100 Senators, a total of 538 electors. The winning presidential candidate must accumulate 270 electors, half plus one, to win the White House.
The presidential election, thus, amounts to 51, the number of US states plus Washington, DC — individual winner-take-all elections.
The swing states are Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. Current polling shows Obama leading in eight, Romney in three and three with new polling unavailable.
The unemployment rate, a key measure of economic recovery, has dropped more sharply in several swing states than in the nation as a whole. A resurgence in manufacturing is helping the economy, and Obama’s chances, in the industrial Midwestern states of Ohio and Michigan. And Arizona, Nevada and Florida, where unemployment remains high, are getting some relief from an uptick in tourism.
The Great Recession of 2007-2009 hit several swing states particularly hard. Unemployment peaked at 14.2 percent in Michigan, where the auto industry faced ruin. It also hit double digits in Arizona, Nevada and Florida, which were at the center of the housing bust, and in North Carolina, which lost jobs in textile and furniture plants.
In 2010, the economic misery helped Republicans retake control of the House and gain seats in the Senate. But the Republicans cannot count on a repeat when voters return to the polls, with much more at stake, on November 6.
After an agonisingly slow recovery, several swing-state economies are finally accelerating: The job market is improving in Michigan and Ohio. In Michigan, unemployment fell to 8.5 percent in March from 10.5 percent in March 2011. And in Ohio, it dropped to 7.5 percent from 8.8 percent over the same period, putting it well below the national average of 8.2 percent. A Fox News poll released Friday showed Obama leading Romney 45 percent to 39 percent among registered voters in Ohio.
