Why Africa Is Not Ready to Benefit from the Dividends of a Trump Presidency

By Jide Akinsemoyin

In September 2024, an extraordinary spectacle unfolded in Beijing: 53 high-level African delegations, including 36 heads of state, gathered for the 9th Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) summit. The event underscored a troubling reality – Africa’s continued reliance on wealthier foreign nations for funding and development support.

Rather than projecting confidence as equal partners on the global stage, many African leaders approached the forum with a mindset rooted in dependency, framing their continent as perpetually in need.

Fast forward to January 2025, when US President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing a near-total freeze on U.S. foreign aid worldwide. While some observers viewed this move as a potential turning point that might compel African nations to look inward for sustainable solutions, I was far less optimistic.

Given the evidence from FOCAC 2024, it seemed clear that business would continue as usual for African leaders, who remain entrenched in a model of external dependence. Meanwhile, countries like China and Russia would seize the opportunity created by America’s retreat to deepen their influence across the continent.

Africa’s Strategic Importance to Global Powers

For China, Africa is not merely a source of critical natural resources but also a vast market for its manufactured goods. According to data from the Chinese customs administration, Africa has become China’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching over US$295 billion in 2024 – an increase of 6.1 percent.

Trade with the United States in comparison stood at US$71.6 billion. This imbalance underscores how much more invested China is in Africa compared to the U.S.

At FOCAC 2024, Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated the importance of Africa to China’s global economic strategy by pledging US$50 billion toward African infrastructure and development over the next three years. Such commitments are emblematic of Beijing’s long term vision for the continent, contrasting sharply with Washington’s abrupt withdrawal of financial support through USAID – a program that channels approximately US$8 billion annually to sub-Saharan African alone.

Until Africa’s leaders embrace a paradigm shift – one that prioritizes national and continental interests over individual agendas – the continent will remain mired in stagnation.

By dismantling USAID, the United States has inadvertently ceded significant ground to China, creating a vacuum of influence that Beijing is poised to fill. This “exploitation” will likely extend beyond mere financial aid; China will continue investing heavily in Africa’s infrastructure, improving connectivity and facilitating trade that ultimately benefits Chinese companies operating within and outside the continent.

Russia Steps In Where America Withdraws

China isn’t the only beneficiary of America’s diminished presence in Africa. Russia, too, stands to gain significantly.

As French and U.S. troops withdraw from the Sahel region, Moscow has been quick to step in, offering security assistance to countries like Niger, Chad, and Mali. In exchange, these nations grant Russia access to their abundant natural resources, further entrenching Russian influence in the region.

This geopolitical shift reflects a broader pattern: as one superpower retreats, others rush to fill the void. Yet, what remains conspicuously absent is any concerted effort by African leaders to capitalize on these dynamics for the continent’s collective benefit.

Instead, they continue to operate within frameworks dictated by external actors, leaving Africa vulnerable to exploitation.

A Leadership Crisis Rooted in Self-Interest

The failure to harness opportunities such as those presented by Trump’s foreign policy decisions stems largely from the mindset of Africa’s leaders. Driven by self-interest and haunted by a pervasive inferiority complex – a legacy of colonialism – they consistently prioritize personal gain over national or continental interests.

Without policies that promote unity and shared progress, Africa cannot counterbalance the growing dominance of foreign powers like China.

Ideally, the African Union (AU), spearheaded by leaders of Africa’s three largest economies – Nigeria, South Africa, and Egypt – should serve as the continent’s unified voice. However, unlike the European Union (EU), which was driven by the cohesive leadership of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, Africa lacks such coordination.

Egypt is geographically isolated in North Africa and more focused on Middle Eastern geopolitics, while Nigeria and South Africa grapple with strained relations rooted in post-apartheid economic rivalry. Tensions have manifested in periodic xenophobic violence against Nigerians and other Africans in South Africa since the 1990s, further eroding any semblance of pan-African solidarity.

The inability of African leaders to rise above petty rivalries and adopt a cohesive vision for the continent’s future is holding Africa back. Opportunities like the one presented by Trump’s foreign aid freeze are squandered because there is no foundation upon which an African resurgence can be built.

Instead, foreign nations with deep pockets and vested interests exploit these gaps, perpetuating cycles of dependency.

Until Africa’s leaders embrace a paradigm shift – one that prioritizes national and continental interests over individual agendas – the continent will remain mired in stagnation. For now, initiatives like FOCAC and shifts in global power dynamics serve as reminders of Africa’s untapped potential – and its enduring vulnerability.

Jide Akinsemoyin is an entrepreneur and writer with a keen focus on critical issues impacting Africa and its global relations. He is also the co-founder of Workspace Africa, a leading platform for property data and insights on Africa’s prime office markets.