When Winners Fall Short: Why Leading Sectors Don’t Always Translate to Strong Returns

By Danilo Desiderio

Fifteen years after the East African Community (EAC) launched its Common Market Protocol – designed to enable the free movement of people, goods, and services across the region – tourism growth has followed a surprisingly uneven trajectory. Kenya, the protocol’s chief architect and the region’s tourism heavyweight, finds itself in a paradoxical position: recording impressive absolute numbers while watching its neighbors sprint ahead in relative terms.

In 2024, Kenya welcomed 2.4 million international arrivals, marking a 15 percent increase from the previous year and setting a new national record. Tourism earnings climbed to KSh 452.2 billion (approximately US$3.5 billion), representing a nearly 20 percent year-on-year surge.

Yet these headline figures mask a more complex reality. Many visitors who might once have chosen Kenya are now opting for Uganda, Tanzania, and Rwanda instead.

Strong numbers, it turns out, don’t necessarily mean Kenya is outpacing its regional competitors.

Consider Tanzania, which recorded over 2.66 million international arrivals in 2024 – a 20 percent increase from 2023 and an astonishing 89 percent growth in annual visitor numbers since 2020, according to this recent article. Uganda and Rwanda have similarly rebounded with vigor, with visitor numbers and spending reaching or exceeding pre-pandemic benchmarks.

The implications are striking: Kenya, which championed the EAC Common Market Protocol and commands one of East Africa’s largest tourism markets, is experiencing slower growth relative to both its market size and its neighbors’ performance. For a regional leader, this raises uncomfortable questions about what separates sector strength from sector success.

The Hidden Costs of Confusion: Travel Authorization and Border Bureaucracy

Beyond the straightforward economics of travel – accommodation, meals, and attractions in Kenya command premium prices compared to Uganda, Rwanda, or Tanzania, dampening appeal among middle-class East African travelers – Kenya’s regulatory approach may be undermining its competitive position.

In January 2024, Kenya introduced an Electronic Travel Authorization (ETA) to replace its existing visa system. By 2025, this requirement was removed for most African visitors in an effort to simplify entry procedures.

This rapid oscillation between tourist visas, ETAs, and visa-free access has eroded predictability, transforming what should be straightforward travel into an administrative puzzle for regional visitors.

The result is paradoxical: despite Kenya now ranking favorably on the Africa Visa Openness Index, the frenetic pace of regulatory change continues to constrain visitor growth, particularly when benchmarked against neighbors with more consistent frameworks. This demonstrates a critical insight often overlooked in policy discussions – even well-intentioned reforms can generate confusion and friction when implementation lacks coherence and stability.

Parsing the Statistical Fog: Why Tourism Numbers Tell Different Stories

The confusion surrounding Kenya’s tourism performance isn’t merely anecdotal; it’s embedded in how different sources measure and report visitor data. Recent government statistics emphasize rebound metrics, tracking 2023-2024 arrivals and revenues to highlight post-pandemic recovery.

Older analytical studies compare decade-long averages – 2010-2019 versus 2010-2024 – which may understate recent growth if earlier years were stagnant or pandemic-affected.

Third-party sources further complicate matters by defining “visitors” inconsistently, sometimes including business travelers or those in transit. Consequently, claims of “22 percent growth since 2010” and record arrivals in 2024 can both be technically accurate while telling fundamentally different narratives.

For meaningful EAC comparisons, relative growth rates and ease of cross-border movement matter far more than absolute visitor counts – a distinction policymakers frequently overlook.

The Deeper Lesson for Kenya and East Africa

Kenya’s tourism sector has demonstrated remarkable post-pandemic resilience, confirming its fundamental capacity for growth and its enduring appeal as a destination. However, when measured against the scale of its already substantial tourism market, several neighboring countries have achieved faster expansion while simultaneously reducing administrative barriers for regional visitors.

The evidence suggests that Kenya’s frequent policy reversals on travel authorization and visa requirements have functioned as a drag on growth relative to its neighbors – proof that administrative hurdles operate as invisible barriers to competitiveness. A country can possess world-class wildlife, pristine beaches, and sophisticated infrastructure, yet still underperform if the regulatory environment creates uncertainty.

This reveals a fundamental truth about economic development that extends far beyond tourism: sector strength and favorable outcomes are not synonymous. The quality of policy implementation – consistency, predictability, and user experience – matters just as much as the policies themselves.

In the competition for visitors, investment, and talent, how rules are applied proves just as decisive as what those rules say on paper.

For Kenya and the broader EAC, the tourism sector’s mixed performance offers a microcosm of larger governance challenges. Regional integration requires more than protocols and agreements; it demands sustained commitment to reducing friction, maintaining consistency, and prioritizing the user experience over bureaucratic convenience.

Champions who fail to internalize these lessons risk watching their competitors claim the rewards they once took for granted.

Danilo Desiderio serves as the CEO of Desiderio Consultants Ltd in Nairobi, Kenya, specializing in African customs, trade, and transport policies. He is a customs and trade expert at the World Bank and a senior associate to the Horn Economic and Social Policy Institute (HESPI).