What Africa Produces: A Question of Capability, Not Necessity

By Danilo Desiderio

For decades, a persistent narrative has shadowed Africa’s economic trajectory: the continent exports what it doesn’t consume and imports what it needs. A recent article in Joy News revived this familiar refrain, arguing that Africa’s overreliance on raw-material exports – and its inability to compete with industrial powerhouses like China – has rendered the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) ineffective before it has even hit its stride.

While the concerns are real, the diagnosis is incomplete – and dangerously reductive.

Africa isn’t producing what it “doesn’t need.” It’s producing what it can, given the structural constraints that have long defined its economic landscape: underdeveloped infrastructure, fragmented markets, limited industrial capacity, and policy environments that often prioritize short-term consumer relief over long-term productive transformation.

The AfCFTA was never conceived as a quick fix. It was designed as a strategic framework to change what Africa can produce – by stitching together a market of 1.3 billion people, catalyzing regional value chains, and creating the scale necessary for competitive manufacturing and services.

The Real Bottleneck Isn’t Production – It’s Connectivity

Yet the agreement’s slow uptake isn’t evidence of failure. It’s a reflection of the very challenges AfCFTA seeks to overcome: non-tariff barriers, inefficient border crossings, inconsistent regulatory regimes, and inadequate transport and energy infrastructure.

These are not symptoms of misguided production – they are bottlenecks that stifle even the most promising value-added exports, from pharmaceuticals to processed agro-products.

Contrary to popular belief, intra-African trade is already more sophisticated than trade with the rest of the world. According to the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), as far back as 2014, 41.9 percent of goods traded within Africa were manufactured or processed, compared to just 14.8 percent of exports leaving the continent.

This data debunks the myth that Africa only trades raw commodities with itself. The real issue isn’t what is being produced – it’s the cost and complexity of moving those goods across borders.

Moreover, framing China’s competitive edge as the primary obstacle to African industrialization risks absolving domestic policymakers of their responsibilities. Yes, Chinese firms benefit from scale, efficiency, and state-backed supply chains.

But African governments also bear responsibility for choices that undermine local production – such as maintaining fuel subsidies or waiving import tariffs on finished goods instead of investing in domestic fertilizer plants, textile mills, or battery assembly lines.

Policy Choices Matter as Much as Global Competition

These short-term fixes may ease consumer prices today, but they hollow out the industrial base needed for tomorrow. The World Bank has repeatedly warned that such policies, while politically expedient, delay the structural transformation Africa urgently needs.

The oft-cited phrase – “Africa produces what it doesn’t need” – originates from Ali Mazrui’s 1974 book Africa: The Next 30 Years. But we are now more than 50 years beyond that horizon.

The continent’s economic reality has evolved. Today’s Africa is urbanizing rapidly, digitally connected, and home to a growing middle class with rising demand for quality, locally made goods.

AfCFTA’s success hinges not on lamenting past production patterns, but on actively reshaping them. This requires more than trade liberalization – it demands coordinated industrial policy, strategic infrastructure investment, harmonized standards, and a commitment to turning natural and agricultural endowments into regional value chains.

The path forward isn’t about producing less of what the world wants. It’s about building the capacity to produce more of what Africa itself needs – and can competitively supply to its neighbors.

AfCFTA’s challenge isn’t production; it’s the painful process of transformation itself.

But with the right policies, political will, and regional cooperation, Africa can finally move from exporting raw potential to trading real value.

Danilo Desiderio serves as the CEO of Desiderio Consultants Ltd in Nairobi, Kenya, specializing in African customs, trade, and transport policies. He is a customs and trade expert at the World Bank and a senior associate to the Horn Economic and Social Policy Institute (HESPI).