The Real Formula Behind “Getting Lucky” in African Markets

By John Kourkoutas

When people hear I built a thriving export advisory business focused on African markets, they often say, “You were just lucky.”

“Right place, right time,” they insist. “You saw an opportunity others missed.”

Let me be clear: my success wasn’t luck – it was design.

I operate by a simple but powerful equation:

Luck = Randomness × Readiness

Remove either variable, and the result is zero.

A $52,000 Breakthrough That Wasn’t Luck

Take my first major deal in Zambia. It began at a networking event in Athens – one I nearly skipped.

A Greek manufacturer, frustrated by saturated markets in Europe and the Middle East, mentioned he had exhausted all options.

I asked: “Have you considered Africa?”

He laughed. “Too risky.”

I countered: “What if I go there and find buyers – for commission only?

That conversation led to a €45,000 (US$52,000) export contract.

Was it “luck”? Only if you ignore the six months I had spent researching African trade corridors, regulatory environments, and buyer profiles.

Only if you overlook the 30+ events I’d attended that year – most of which led nowhere.

This wasn’t serendipity. It was preparedness meeting probability.

Why “Luck” Is a Myth for the Unprepared

Over the past decade, I have executed more than 100 trade and investment projects across African markets – from Lagos to Lusaka, Nairobi to Niamey. Every “overnight success” had a backstory of deliberate groundwork.

Consider another example: a random LinkedIn message asking, “Can you help us enter Kenya?”

Many would have replied with a boilerplate proposal and scheduled a call weeks later. I responded: “I am in Nairobi next week. Want to meet?”

That meeting turned into a €180,000 (US$208,000) client engagement. Again – not luck.

• Randomness: I was visible and active on professional platforms, consistently sharing insights on African market dynamics.
• Readiness: I already had boots on the ground – planned travel, local contacts, and a clear value proposition.

The Two Levers of Opportunity

If you want to “get lucky” in Africa – or anywhere – master these two levers:

1. Maximize Randomness

Create as many points of contact with opportunity as possible:

• Attend conferences – even when you are tired.
• Say yes to awkward networking events.
• Send cold messages (yes, even if 95 percent go unanswered).
• Enter markets others deem “too risky.”

Most of my biggest wins came from conversations I almost didn’t have.

2. Engineer Readiness

When randomness strikes, be ready to act immediately:

• Research obsessively – before the opportunity appears.
• Craft a clear, compelling offer you can pitch in 60 seconds.
• Build a trusted network that can execute with you.
• Prioritize speed over perfection.

In fast-moving markets like Africa, the first mover often wins – not the best prepared on paper, but the one actually ready to move.

The Illusion of Overnight Success

People see the deal. They don’t see the 200+ events over 10 years.

They don’t see the nights spent decoding customs regulations or the flights taken on 48 hours’ notice. They don’t see the years I spent living part-time in Africa – building relationships, testing assumptions, and learning from missteps.

What looks like luck is, in fact, a portfolio of small bets, relentless preparation, and the discipline to show up – even when the odds feel uncertain.

Your Turn: Design Your Own “Luck”

Ask yourself:

• What random opportunity am I avoiding because it feels inconvenient or uncertain?
• What readiness work should I be doing now – before the next signal appears?

Because in the high-stakes, high-reward landscape of African trade and investment, luck doesn’t find you. You build it.

And when randomness meets readiness – that’s when markets open.

John Kourkoutas is business development expert that specializes in helping companies, export teams, and business leaders succeed in Africa’s dynamic and emerging markets.