A Diaspora View of Africa
The New World Order and Africa, Part 2
By Gregory Simpkins
Shifts in alliances are quickening as U.S. allies are moving toward the nations seeking to undo what they say is American hegemony over world affairs. Saudi Arabia is reportedly buying Russian oil to pass on to European markets prevented from buying directly from Russia due to U.S-promoted sanctions, Egypt reportedly is selling or about to sell weapons to Russia and France is defining limits to its and NATO’s willingness to follow the U.S. lead on opposing China over its claims in Taiwan.
The effort by some nations to overthrow the U.S. dollar as the world’s leading reserve currency may not happen soon or even at all, but it is becoming clear that a growing number of nations are chafing at being limited in their behavior by the shadow of American sanctions.
Undoubtedly, there are African countries that resent U.S. sanctions. There is appreciation, though, by many Africans over the significant humanitarian contributions from the United States, and many in African civil society realize the contribution of even the threat of sanctions in encouraging the rule of law and good governance in their countries. Still, there are governments who would rather go their own way on how they govern and obey their laws and international accords on human rights.
Unfortunately, the record of some of these African governments is seriously lacking in terms of rule of law and good governance, according to the 2022 report by the Ibrahim Institute on African Governance (IIAG):
“Despite a marginal improvement over the past decade (2012-2021), overall governance on the continent has flatlined since 2019. Improvements in human development and economic foundations are undermined by an increasingly perilous security situation and widespread democratic backsliding – as the continent struggles to manage the combined impacts of global, non-African-born challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the climate crisis,” the report released in January 2023.
“As we speak, all these pre-existing challenges are being compounded by the effects of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, which started on 24 February 2022 (even if its effects are not yet captured in the IIAG time period).”
Governance
During the period measured by IIAG, more than 40 countries have improved in the categories Foundations for Economic Opportunity and Human Development, but at the same time more than 30 countries have deteriorated in the following categories:
- Security & Rule of Law
- Participation, Rights & Inclusion.
The trend toward African accountability is a welcome sign of political maturity and encouraging to foreign investors and businesspeople seeking a haven for their commercial efforts.
Looking at the five highest-ranking and five lowest-ranking countries on the governance scale, there are mixed results:
Seychelles (+9.3, ranking 2nd), Tunisia (+3.1, ranking 3rd), and Botswana (+0.8, ranking 5th) have improved since 2012. Mauritius (-2.2, ranking 1st) and Cape Verde (-1.2, ranking 4th) have deteriorated over the decade.
South Sudan (-5.7, ranking 54th) and Central African Republic (-2.0, ranking 50th) have been the only ones to show a decline since 2012. Somalia (+5.3, ranking 53rd), Eritrea (+1.9, ranking 52nd) and Equatorial Guinea (+1.2, ranking 51st) have improved over the decade.
The Ibrahim Prize for Achievement in African Leadership, also known as the Ibrahim Prize, is an annual prize awarded to a former African Executive Head of State or Government using the criteria of good governance, democratic election and respect of terms limits. Since its inception in 2007, the prize has been awarded only seven times. It has often not been offered, with no leader being found worthy of the award during a given year.
The winners have been Mozambique’s Joaquim Chissano (2007), South Africa’s Nelson Mandela (honorary, 2007), Botswana’s Festus Mogae (2008), Cape Verde’s Pedro Pires (2011), Namibia’s Hifikepunye Pohamba (2014), Liberia’s Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf (2017) and Niger’s Mahamadou Issoufou (2020).
What these leaders have in common is an objection to overstaying their mandate to become “presidents for life.” According to the IIAG report, African countries with the longest-serving presidents have poor levels of accountability and transparency. The IIAG report states that African governments are less accountable and less transparent now than they have been at any time in the last 10 years. The continent has experienced a decline (-1.3) in the sub-category Accountability & Transparency.
In Africa, the police and the judiciary are viewed as the most corrupt institutions, stated an 11 January 2023 article in the Africa Report. More than half of the African population surveyed believes that their governments are run by big entities acting in their own interests, at the expense of the public good. These indicators are a clear sign of fragility on the continent, which leads to insecurity and a situation in which potential foreign investors and businesspeople are reluctant to enter markets that could prove to be mutually beneficial.
Accountability
There is hope, however, that accountability is growing on the continent. In a 24 March 2023 article in the Washington Times, accountability for the family of the late Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe has arrived.
“His father was one of the world’s most feared dictators for decades. Today, Robert Mugabe Jr. is on bail pending a return to a Zimbabwean court on a charge of damaging property that could send him to jail,” the article reported.
“His mother, Grace, has a warrant for her arrest across the border in South Africa, where she is accused of assaulting a woman in Johannesburg in 2017. Mrs. Mugabe has not returned to South Africa since then. Under local law, the warrant will remain active until 2037 unless the matter is resolved.”
The Washington Times article presented examples in Angola, Kenya, and Mozambique, where members of onetime ruling dynasties are either in exile, prison, or under investigation as new leaders try to reclaim billions of dollars that they believe the first families embezzled. In a sign of a change on the continent, having a famous last name no longer automatically confers political or legal immunity, the article stated.
Angola, Africa’s second-largest oil producer, won its independence from Portugal in November 1975. Former president, José Eduardo dos Santos initially ruled with a ban on all opposition parties and the press under state control. A series of civil wars devastated the country. With peace in 2002, the ruling People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) held on to power in what critics say were rigged elections, but today, that same ruling party is prosecuting Dos Santos’ daughter, allegedly the wealthiest person in the country.
The trend toward African accountability is a welcome sign of political maturity and encouraging to foreign investors and businesspeople seeking a haven for their commercial efforts. To what extent U.S. sanctions are responsible for this trend is unclear. However, it is certain that without some international pressure, accountability and conditions of rule of law and good governance would be more fragile.
The governments seeking to overthrow the U.S. dollar, which would make American sanctions much less effective, are authoritarian and unconcerned with rule of law or good governance. They would encourage much less attention to accountability and the hard fights against corruption. Some African leaders may prefer to be unregulated, but their people know there would be no hope for a level playing field for them or for the foreign direct investment that would create jobs.
Removing what some feel is a threat to their independence would have a negative impact on the quality of life for African citizens, but there is a way to utilize U.S. sanctions selectively on those who undermine laws and elections in their country without punishing those innocent of wrongdoing. The Global Magnitsky Act allows for individual sanctions and must be employed to the extent possible to prevent entire countries from being held back by the action of those who do not respect law or their own people.
Gregory Simpkins, a longtime specialist in African policy development, is the Principal of 21st Century Solutions. He consults with organizations on African policy issues generally, especially in relating to the U.S. Government. He also serves as Managing Director for the Morganthau Stirling consulting firm, where he oversees program development and implementation. He further acts as a consultant to the African Merchants Association, where he advises the Association in its efforts to stimulate an increase in trade between several hundred African Diaspora small and medium enterprises and their African partners.