Supply Chain Resilience: Diversification of Routes key to Mitigate Transport Disruptions in Africa

By Danilo Desiderio

In fragile geopolitical environments such as Sub-Saharan Africa – marked by territorial conflicts, road banditry, terrorist attacks, and inter-ethnic and inter-tribal clashes – effective geopolitical risk management is essential. These challenges, compounded by the prevalence of illicit economic activities in conflict-prone regions, compel governments to deploy significant security measures, including road checkpoints and patrols.

While necessary, these measures often disrupt transportation networks, create congestion, and drive up logistics costs.

This situation is further aggravated by the deteriorating infrastructure along many African trade corridors.

As a result, businesses operating in Sub-Saharan Africa must not only assess the risks associated with their suppliers – especially those located in conflict-affected or high-risk areas – but also evaluate the safety and vulnerability of the transportation routes their goods traverse.

A recent article in The Wall Street Journal highlights the increasing prevalence of conflict in Africa, particularly in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa. These regions, forming a belt that spans the continent from west to east, have seen a significant rise in instability.

According to an analysis by Verisk Maplecroft, the areas affected by conflict have doubled over the past three years, now encompassing a territory ten times the size of the United Kingdom, or approximately 10 percent of Sub-Saharan Africa’s total landmass.

Managing Risk

The Global Risks Report 2025 by the World Economic Forum echoes this concern, identifying crime and illicit economic activity as key risks to doing business in Sub-Saharan Africa. It predicts sustained geopolitical volatility over the next two years, not only within the continent but globally.

Given these realities, businesses engaged in intra-continental trade in Sub-Saharan Africa must establish dedicated units for managing geopolitical risk. By proactively identifying, assessing, and monitoring threats in supply and distribution markets, these units can develop strategies to mitigate disruptions, ensuring the resilience of their supply chains, production processes, and market penetration efforts.

There are several approaches to implementing such risk management practices:

1. Basic Risk Monitoring: A dedicated team can track news, social media, and other data sources to gain real-time insights into geopolitical developments. This team can also design crisis management plans and implement risk mitigation strategies to respond swiftly to trade and transport disruptions. Numerous intelligence advisory firms currently operating in Africa provide detailed country risk assessments and analyses of evolving geopolitical dynamics, supporting businesses in these efforts.
2. Advanced Technological Solutions: Businesses can leverage Road Management Information Systems (RMIS) where available. These GIS-based technologies, employed by various road authorities, offer real-time updates on road conditions and traffic disruptions. RMIS systems send alerts when issues arise, enabling timely interventions and reducing delays.

For instance, within the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), some countries have adopted road monitoring systems where vehicles equipped with electronic devices assess road conditions and report disruptions. The resulting data is made accessible to road users, such as truck drivers, via applications or tablets running specialized software like “L2R Mesure.”

This technology not only minimizes delays in goods delivery but also enhances overall security and efficiency.

By adopting these proactive and innovative approaches, businesses can navigate the complex geopolitical landscape of Sub-Saharan Africa more effectively, safeguarding their operations and positioning themselves for sustainable growth in the region.

Danilo Desiderio serves as the CEO of Desiderio Consultants Ltd in Nairobi, Kenya, specializing in African customs, trade, and transport policies. He is a customs and trade expert at the World Bank and a senior associate to the Horn Economic and Social Policy Institute (HESPI).