Poll: 67% margin required in Antigua & Barbuda referendum to move to CCJ may not be attained

The majority of people in Antigua & Barbuda supports the country replacing the London-based Privy Council with the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) as its final appellate court, but the figure “marginally achieves the margin necessary for this measure to pass,” according to the findings an opinion poll.

The poll conducted by the Barbados-based Caribbean Development Research Services (CADRES) in September and obtained by the Caribbean Media Corporation (CMC) showed that 65 percent of those questioned will vote “For” the CCJ, while 35 percent will vote “Against”.

Last week, Prime Minister Gaston Browne hinted at the possibility of “calling off” the national referendum to determine whether or not the twin island-nation should replace the Privy Council with the Trinidad & Tobago-based CCJ as its final appellate court.

“We have always taken the position that we reserve the right to call off the referendum. So if per chance we do a poll later in the year and we are not up to the 67 percent, we may just decide to call it off, I am not saying any such decision has been taken,” Browne said.

In August, Browne said he had agreed to an opposition request to extend the time frame for public discussions on the issue indicating that a referendum on the matter would now take place by March next year for the latest.

Winding up debate on the Constitutional Referendum Bill 2016, which he piloted in Parliament Browne, said he hoped the extension is not being utilized to frustrate the process. He said the referendum vote, which had originally been announced for October 27, would be extended “to early next year, January, February, perhaps no later than March of 2017”.

The CADRES poll was conducted as the ruling Antigua & Barbuda Labor Party (ABLP) administration celebrated its second anniversary in June 2016.

CADRES said the methodology used to conduct the survey is consistent with others it has conducted in Antigua & Barbuda, and would be expected to achieve a margin of error of minus or plus 5 percent.

It said that 800 people were questioned in 16 ridings based on a standard interview schedule that sought information on major national and political issues.
“The views of the public on the CCJ are of interest now and the survey explored the different positions voters intend to take,” CADRES said, noting that respondents were asked 2 related questions in the survey which sought to establish their views on the CCJ as distinct from how they expected to vote on this issue and it is significant that there is a close relationship between these two sets of data.

The CCJ was established in 2001 to replace the Privy Council as the region’s final court, but while most of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) countries are signatories to its Original Jurisdiction, only Barbados, Belize, Dominica and Guyana have signed on to the Appellate Jurisdiction. The CCJ also serves as an international tribunal interpreting the Revised Treaty of Chaguaramas that governs the 15-member regional integration movement. -(CMC)