Political Instability and Electoral Violence in Africa: The Case of Côte d’Ivoire

By Mary Alorh

Since the 1960s, interstate wars in Africa have been rare. Instead, internal conflicts and civil wars have dominated, often pitting rebel groups against government forces.

The Role of the African Union in Conflict Prevention

The 1998 Ethiopia-Eritrea war prompted the African Union (AU) to establish norms aimed at preventing interstate interference, curbing cross-border conflicts, and promoting regional stability. However, internal struggles within nations remain a significant challenge, often driven by power struggles and economic disparity.

Weak States and the Struggle for Power

The formation of weak states with limited economic opportunities has disproportionately benefited those at the highest levels of government. As a result, factions continuously emerge, seeking access to power and wealth by controlling state institutions.

Political parties are frequently established along ethnic lines, further deepening divisions and reinforcing the pursuit of resources and authority.

Historical Precedents of Power Struggles

History has shown that such power struggles can lead to the rise of oppressive regimes, as exemplified by Uganda under Idi Amin and Ethiopia under the Dergue. Between the 1960s and 1980s, Africa experienced 70 coups and 13 assassinations, with factionalized militaries igniting devastating conflicts and civil wars.

Political Violence in Côte d’Ivoire

In more recent times, political violence has destabilized Côte d’Ivoire. The 2011 post-electoral crisis was followed by another turbulent election in 2020, marked by widespread violence.

President Alassane Ouattara’s controversial bid for a third term resulted in at least 83 deaths and 633 injuries. His administration’s decision to disqualify 40 out of 44 opposition candidates, coupled with electoral irregularities in voter registration, provoked outrage and led opposition parties to boycott the elections.

The Impact of COVID-19 on Electoral Tensions

The COVID-19 state of emergency further exacerbated tensions, as the government unilaterally amended the electoral code and banned public gatherings, effectively granting police broad authority to disperse opposition protests. By November 2020, the UNHCR reported that over 3,000 people had fled the country in fear for their lives.

Elite Rivalries and Local Grievances

Côte d’Ivoire’s third-term crisis underscores how elite rivalries – particularly among President Ouattara and opposition leaders Henri Konan Bédié and Pascal Affi N’Guessan—have fueled electoral tensions and violence. Local grievances remain central to understanding the unrest, particularly unresolved crimes from the civil war (2002–2011) and the 2011 post-election crisis, which continue to divide communities along political and ethnic lines.

The Path to Lasting Peace

Achieving lasting peace requires addressing long-standing disputes over electoral rules and procedures, especially concerning the composition of the Independent Electoral Commission. Establishing a fair and transparent electoral framework is essential to preventing future violence and fostering national stability.

The Need for Regional and International Intervention

Despite these tensions, President Ouattara appears intent on seeking a fourth term, further exacerbating political unrest and increasing the risk of another crisis. It is imperative for ECOWAS, the AU, and the United Nations to intervene and urge respect for Côte d’Ivoire’s constitutional framework.

ECOWAS, in particular, must take a proactive stance to ensure democratic principles are upheld and prevent the country from descending into further turmoil.

Mary Alorh is Director of Administration at DefSEC Analytics Africa Ltd., and is an expert in Gender, Youth, and Peace & Security initiatives in West Africa.