Part 1: Why Donald Trump Can’t, and Won’t Win in 2016

By Dennis Matanda, Ryan Elcock
& Emmanuel Musaazi | The Habari Network

Part 1 of a commentary as to why Donald Trump will lose in November

As if you needed further proof that Donald Trump will not be the 45th President of the United States, we give you Exhibit A: Bill O’Reilly, c/o Fox News. A quick synthesis of the man’s show, and you’ll find that his ‘Number One in Cable News’ status — he’s been for over 12 years — rests on O’Reilly not only being entertaining; he’s a take-charge kinda guy – the sort of fellow that barrels his way through common sense and fact to fit everything into the prism of quasi-philosophy. He claims never to spin or petty-fog issues, but the so-called ‘No Spin Zone’ seems to have out-spun itself into relevancy. The O’Reilly Factor is relevant to Trump, and the Republican Party’s nominee for President this November is quite at home in a format where he and Bill talk things out like real men; there’s neither too much analysis, nor an in depth consideration of how multidimensional a phenomenon could be. The two men interrupt each other in the way only 60 or 70-year olds can do if they like each other. In this case, the two have something in common: their country is not doing well, and they must – for the sake of their women and children – put it back on the road to health and full recovery.

Contextually, Mr. O’Reilly is used here because he fits the mold of someone that Herman Sinaiko suggests is prone to scapegoating and seeing the world as run by conspiracies. And together with his regular guest Mr. Trump, Bill O’Reilly seems to get even stronger at a time when Sinaiko says standards and control mechanisms are weak, and conspiracy theories are rife. The ISIS terrorists are winning in the Middle East. The Benghazi Investigation did not come up with anything to pin to Hillary’s enormous behind. The Black Lives Matter movement is taking over the race wars in the United States [and Martin Luther King Junior would NEVER have associated himself with those marauding black youth]. The economy is in the toilet because wages have been stagnant, the economy is growing at a slower pace than anything else – black unemployment under a black president is about 16 percent. The world is coming to an end because Obama is not strong enough. He does not represent the actual essence of America. He tells lies – just like Secretary Hillary Clinton. Bill and Trump have a field day each time they discuss what is not going well in these United States.

Importantly, it matters less that neither O’Reilly nor Trump are right-wing zealots. What matters even more is that these seem to have tapped into a phenomenon that has some serious legs. Many were surprised that Trump was the Lead Birther. Why would a successful businessman focus on the illegitimacy of America’s first black president? Turns out that a huge swarth of America’s white people was really unhappy with the history their countrymen had just made. Obama was Moslem. He was the Devil. He was a Liberal. He read Saul Alinsky. Over his 7.5 years as POTUS, Obama had, seemingly scared Americans right into the arms of apocalypticists like the Trump/O’Reilly bedfellows.

According to Chip Berlet and Matthew Lyons, it seems as though both Trump and O’Reilly are on a winning streak in their respective segments. There’s hope that their infamy will be used to lead America to its promised land. But all this is a fallacy especially because the social and political movement Ms. Trump and O’Reilly expect to lead is one that fights a righteous battle against the kind of ‘evil’ forces unleashed by Barack Obama and his liberal zombies. Conspiracies and apocalypticism, like Berlet and Lyons, say in their book ‘Right-Wing Populism in America: Too Close for Comfort‘, have influenced the Republican Party and conservatives at various stages in history. Many of these things have worked – helping George W. Bush win a decisive victory over John Kerry in 2004, and ensuring that Ronald Reagan run the country as efficiently as he did for his 8-year term in office.

But like is bound to happen, both O’Reilly and Trump are, unfortunately, talking or appealing to an audience that is also fast-dwindling. The Republican Party is not attracting many new followers ever since the Tea Party phenomenon. And because Donald Trump has made some really inflammatory remarks about Mexicans, Moslems and women, it would be safe to say that Trump will not win any more of this demographic than Mitt Romney did in 2012. And when these facts are juxtaposed with what the Democrats and liberals are doing to their current demographic, we must all applaud George W. Bush when he says he might have been America’s last Republican President. At least, there’s a semblance of truth to this statement – a breath of fresh air from what his erstwhile party is spewing today.

In Part II, we shall explore the specific reasons Donald Trump is bound to lose the bid for 45th President of the United States. We intend to delve into demographics, polling and also, the rigor around the electoral college.

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