Owusu on Africa: The current politics of regionalism as played by military leaders in Africa – no easy way out

By Fidel Amakye Owusu

The military government of Sudan continues to insist that the African Union (AU) removes sanctions it had imposed on it, and fully recognizes the country as a full member of the union.

A few weeks ago, Sudan announced that it was withdrawing its membership from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in response to the reception that IGAD-member states had accorded to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) leader General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo during the latter’s recent “shuttle diplomacy” in the region.

The Sudanese Armed Forces SAF and its leadership insist that the actions of IGAD undermine the sovereignty of the state and the legitimacy of the government.

Furthermore, even though the AU legally rejects the removal of governments by the use of force, the SAF seeks to hinge peace in Sudan on the removal of sanctions.

What is happening in the Horn of Africa is not an isolated case concerning how various military leaders seek to use their membership of blocs and the concomitant dynamics to their advantage.

Late last month, the military governments of three landlocked Sahel states ( Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger) succeeded in having sanctions on them removed after announcing a breakaway from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

This happened after the consistent calls and blame by the soldiers. Almost all socio-economic challenges were attributed to sanctions despite their imposition being legal.

Easy way out?

With Sudan making the removal of sanctions the sine qua non of peace and Sahel military rulers having them removed, the wind seems to be in the sails of coup makers. Some ( myself included) have argued that this could make future coupmakers more audacious.

This notwithstanding, recent compromises by regional leaders could put pressure on the juntas in the long term.

How?

Firstly, the tendency of military governments to blame sanctions for challenges that have sometimes preceded them is undercut by these compromises. After French and UN forces ended their operations in the Sahel, ECOWAS became the new “external enemy” with which the juntas rallied domestic support. With sanctions removed, they would have to take responsibility.

Also, in all these states there exist institutionalized opposition forces whose foundation is rooted in the early 1990s. The removal of sanctions would make these forces amplify their call for transition. There will be fewer credible excuses not to hand over.

In the case of Sudan, the removal of sanctions will not happen in a vacuum. The AU will make sure adequate compromises will be made before such decisions.

It is not surprising that, after the lifting of sanctions no solid response has come from the juntas. Ultimately, they are not willing to relinquish power.

Fidel Amakye Owusu is an International Relations and Security Analyst. He is an Associate at the Conflict Research Consortium for Africa and has previously hosted an International Affairs program with the Ghana Broadcasting Corporation (GBC). He is passionate about Diplomacy and realizing Africa’s global potential and how the continent should be viewed as part of the global collective.