Owusu on Africa: Bukina Faso purges

By Fidel Amakye Owusu

There is a popular saying that a disease that does not kill you strengthens you. In some cases, this has been scientifically proven.

In power struggles, this often applies. People get stronger when the opposition against them fails. It appears the intensity of the opposition and the power of the victor have an inverse relationship. When leaders survive coups, they become more powerful – mostly.

Many political observers saw the dramatic increase in Türkiye’s president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s power after the coup against his government failed in mid-2016. While Erdoğan was significantly powerful before the coup attempt, the failed putsch gave him extra powers to purge the “entire” Turkish society.

The moment Yevgeny Prigozhin decided to accept a Lukashenko-brokered deal between him and the Kremlin, everyone knew that Putin had more reason to expand his purge of the country’s elite class. He did not disappoint.

And so what?

Days back, rumors emerged that the junta in Burkina Faso was dealing with a coup. A couple of days later, the junta announced that it had quelled a coup attempt. Considering that the junta had deposed another military government, this was not surprising.

It emerged that the Chief of Staff of the country’s gendarmerie force – Lieutenant-Colonel Évrard Somda was shown the exit. This was after his close associates were arrested a week earlier.

More is likely to follow as the junta seeks to make coups “unattractive” to other officers who would want to depose it. Also, many innocent people may become “collateral damage” to the resolve of the junta to deter future coups.

The psychological twist to the apparent paranoia in Ouagadougou is the widely held view by the supporters of the junta that Ibrahim Traoré is the “second Thomas Sankara”. While this is widely accepted by military leaders, there is also the fear that he could be “betrayed” as it happened to the latter.

While Traoré is nowhere close to Sankara, and the underlying conditions that brought them to power are significantly different, the psychology behind such claims and their ramifications cannot be overlooked. The junta will therefore do everything within their reach to prevent internal dissent and ineptitude.

The aftermath of what appears to be the most important challenge to its authority could be tighter control and extensive surveillance in the Sahel state. Combining regime protection and the fight against violent extremism could be herculean. The regime will have more excuses to stay on and clamp down on dissent.

While Traoré is unhappy about any challenge to his power, it paradoxically “grants” him more power.

Examples abound and he knows.

Fidel Amakye Owusu is an International Relations and Security Analyst. He is an Associate at the Conflict Research Consortium for Africa and has previously hosted an International Affairs program with the Ghana Broadcasting Corporation (GBC). He is passionate about Diplomacy and realizing Africa’s global potential and how the continent should be viewed as part of the global collective.