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Nigeria: Muhammadu Buhari predicted to defeat Goodluck Jonathan at the presidential elections
Latest polls indicate that opposition leader Muhammadu Buhari will defeat the incumbent president, Goodluck Jonathan in the upcoming presidential elections.
According to political research group, Eurasia, the electoral map is tilting towards Buhari and his All Progressives Congress (APC) party, in the swing regions of the southwest and middle belt parts of the country and it is predicted that a high voter turnout in his core northern base will offset Jonathan’s advantage in the Niger Delta.
Eurasia Group said a Buhari win would be made possible by the intensity of support for his candidature, a lackluster grassroots campaigning by Jonathan’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the strong anti-rigging measures put in place by the country’s Independent National Electoral Commission.
It predicted that Buhari would record a 60 percent victory against Goodluck Jonathan, who is seeking re-election.
In an earlier forecast for the presidential election in August last year, Eurasia Group had predicted a victory for Jonathan, with a 75 percent margin against Buhari. But in the new estimate yesterday, Eurasia said the indicators for the president’s electoral success had switched in favor of opposition candidate. “We change our election forecast from a narrow win for incumbent Goodluck Jonathan to a victory for opposition leader Muhamadu Buhari,” the Eurasia Group stated in the forecast.
“The electoral map is tilting towards Buhari in the swing regions of the southwest and middle belt, while high turnout in his core northern base will offset Jonathan’s advantage in the Niger Delta,” it added. It equally predicted that under a Buhari administration, “there will be more reliance on technocratic, business-oriented senior officials will lead to constructive policy initiatives.”
Other factors that would seal the defeat of Jonathan, it said, were the new permanent voting cards and card readers that would “sharply reduce the level of rigging” seen in previous elections. Another factor was the “enthusiasm gap between the candidates and widespread desire for change” in the country, according to the group.
“While we expected the electoral map to favor Jonathan, current trends suggest that the swing regions may side with Buhari, including the Christian-majority and heavily populated South-West around Lagos. That could be the decisive demographic factor in the election.
“Jonathan won the South-West and middle belt handily in 2011, but faces an uphill task now. Buhari has reached out to the southwestern Yoruba community and brought them into the upper ranks of his campaign and potential administration, in a political alliance of the country’s 2 largest ethnic groups – the Hausa and the Yoruba. In contrast, Jonathan has struggled to make inroads with either group.”
Over the past 12 months Buhari’s APC party has suffered fewer defections as compared to the ruling PDP of Goodluck Jonathan – another indicator of the incumbent’s vulnerability at the polls.