Leadership shakeup in Africa Armed forces: Stability or instability ahead?

By Godfred Zina

Military chiefs in some African countries have been replaced, but this trend may have far-reaching implications for the continent’s stability and governance.

Recently, President Felix Tshisekedi replaced the DRC chief of defense without any official explanation. However, the decision has sparked speculation about whether the routine restructuring has been a response to internal pressure or a precautionary measure against instability.

In fact, after the election in South Sudan was postponed, there were rumors of a coup plot, but President Salva Kiir swiftly dismissed several top security officials, including the army and police chiefs, due to some internal challenges, indicating the fragile nature of the South Sudan security apparatus.

Also, when the junta in Gabon heightened takeovers in the region, the Rwanda Defense Force approved the retirement of 12 generals, 83 senior officers, six junior officers, and 86 senior non-commissioned officers, with 678 soldiers retiring after the end of their contracts and 160 others medically discharged.

In a similar vein in August, Cameroon’s president appointed new members to the defense ministry central administrative unit, and after returning from Geneva in October after a six-week visit, President Paul Biya announced new appointments to the country’s defense forces 24 hours after his return.

Meanwhile, in Nigeria, the General Officer Commanding at the height of the coup in the subregion publicly called on the military to be loyal to the president and the constituted authority at all times. In fact, just weeks ago, the Nigeria Chief of Army Staff, speaking at the CIMIC quarterly media chat, reaffirmed the Army’s unwavering loyalty to the presidency and the constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

And so, what?

The continued reaffirmed support may suggest an underlying concern about internal cohesion in the Nigerian army.

Change in military leadership in Africa is not new, but these changes could domestically stabilize or destabilize a nation, depending on the competence and intentions of the new appointees, who are mostly loyalists.

Leadership changes can impact civil-military relations, regional stability, and economic confidence, as they could affect foreign investment and aid coming into the country. African nations must strengthen civil oversight of their militaries, ensuring professionalism and reducing the risk of politicization.

Governments must also tackle the root causes of discontent within the armed forces, such as inadequate conditions and a lack of institutional trust. Regional cooperation is essential to managing shared security threats and upholding democratic principles.

Godfred Zina is a freelance journalist and an associate with DefSEC Analytics Africa – a consulting agency specializing in the provision of accurate data and assessments on security, politics, investment, trade, and other risks within Africa. He is based in Accra, Ghana.