Kenya: Presidential election likely to go to 2nd round run off vote – polls

The race for Kenya’s presidency between incumbent Uhuru Kenyatta and opposition leader Raila Odinga has tightened less than 3 weeks before election day, with polls showing both candidates lack the support to avoid a 2nd-round vote.

Odinga, a former prime minister, is backed by 47 percent of voters, while Kenyatta is at 46 percent, according to a poll by Infotrak released in the capital, Nairobi, on Sunday.
A separate survey by Ipsos showed Kenyatta at 47 percent and Odinga with 43 percent, up 1 point from a May survey. A candidate needs 50 percent plus 1 vote and support from 25 of Kenya’s 47 counties to be declared the winner.

“The outcome will depend on voters’ turnout, which side gets more people out on voting day,” Ipsos researcher Tom Wolf said at a media briefing. “If the opposition can do that, they can flip this and they can win.”

Kenyatta, 55, is seeking a 2nd term against 72-year-old Odinga.
About 40 percent of those polled expressed confidence in Kenyatta, while 39 percent said they were confident in Odinga, according to Ipsos. About 61 percent said Kenya is headed in the wrong direction and 44 percent support the ruling Jubilee party over the opposition National Super Alliance, which got 42 percent support, Ipsos said.

Kenya is in the throes of a drought that’s spanned three harvests and cut farm output, leading to shortages of foods including the staple corn, sugar and milk. That has driven the inflation rate to the highest level in 5 years.

Kenyatta’s chances of winning in the first round has declined to 49 percent from 62 percent in May, according to Emma Gordon, senior analyst at Verisk Maplecroft.
The race is “too close to call accurately” and avoiding a 2nd ballot has become more difficult, Gordon said. The government’s “mishandling” of corn shortages may boost the opposition by swinging undecided voters away from Kenyatta, Gordon said.

About two-thirds of Kenyans said they are worse-off economically, citing the high cost-of-living, hunger and joblessness as the most serious problems they grapple with daily, Ipsos said in a survey released July 19. Among the most aggrieved are voters in western Nyanza region, an opposition stronghold, Ipsos said.

The Infotrak poll shows support for the key parties, the ruling Jubilee Party and main opposition National Super Alliance, tied at 45 percent, while 49 percent of those surveyed said the nation is headed in the wrong direction compared with 47 percent who said Kenya is on the right track.

Source: Bloomberg