Jamaica: Will ruling party take advantage of Holness bounce?

Political analysts in Jamaica, are suggesting that there could be an early general election, – possibly before the 2012 London Olympics and next year’s observation of Jamaica’s 50th anniversary of Independence.

Prime Minister Bruce Golding will be stepping down as as prime minister and leader of the Jamaica Labor Party (JLP). The transition from from Golding to Education Minister Andrew Holness (pictured), is going along very smoothly.

It is anticipated that Holness, after he is sworn in as prime minister, will call the election sooner rather than later, in order to avoid a drop in support similar to that suffered by Portia Simpson Miller who, despite overwhelming support in the aftermath of her ascendancy to the leadership of the People’s National Party (PNP) and the government in 2006, waited too long to call the election.

If the election is not called early, the JLP would only be able to save a few garrison seats that the JLP controls. It would be a devastating defeat.

All the economic considerations that could give the JLP a political lift are not going well for the party. The best bet for the Jamaica Labour Party, given all the indicators in respect of the public opinion polls, is that the earlier it calls the election, the better it will be for its’ future in government.

Despite the JLP getting a new leader, voters will examine several other factors.