Ivory Coast Votes: Can Stability Without Change Endure?

By Godfred Zina

After emerging from the ashes of the 2010–11 post-election violence – a crisis that left over 3,000 dead and deepened national fractures – Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast) has enjoyed more than a decade of relative peace and robust economic growth. Yet as Ivorians head to the polls on October 25, 2025, the country faces a pivotal question: can political stability persist in the absence of genuine democratic renewal?

At 83, President Alassane Ouattara is poised to secure a controversial fourth term, extending his rule despite having pledged in 2020 to step down. His continued candidacy – enabled by constitutional revisions and the exclusion of key opposition figures – has drawn sharp criticism both domestically and internationally.

Former president Laurent Gbagbo, acquitted by the International Criminal Court and widely seen as a legitimate challenger, remains barred from running. So too is Tidjane Thiam, the respected former CEO of Prudential plc and a potential unifying figure for a fractured opposition.

This narrowing of the political field does more than stifle competition – it erodes democratic legitimacy. When credible alternatives are sidelined through legal technicalities or opaque judicial processes, elections risk becoming exercises in political theater rather than instruments of popular will.

The result? A “managed democracy” that may deliver short-term calm but sows the seeds of long-term instability.

The Economic Cost of Political Stagnation

For investors, Ouattara’s tenure has offered predictability. Under his leadership, Ivory Coast has averaged GDP growth above 6 percent annually, attracted significant foreign direct investment, and positioned itself as West Africa’s second-largest economy.

Yet economic confidence is increasingly tied to political credibility. Without transparent succession planning or inclusive governance, even the most favorable macroeconomic indicators may fail to reassure wary markets – particularly during election cycles marked by uncertainty and perceived unfairness.

Regionally, the stakes extend beyond Abidjan. As a linchpin of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and a key player in the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), Ivory Coast’s democratic trajectory sends powerful signals across the continent.

If ECOWAS remains silent on constitutional manipulations that entrench incumbents – while condemning coups elsewhere – it risks undermining its own credibility and the broader project of African economic integration.

Stability without change is a fragile bargain. Ivory Coast’s post-crisis recovery is commendable, but true resilience lies not in the longevity of one leader, but in institutions that outlive him. The 2025 election is less a referendum on Ouattara’s record and more a stress test for Ivorian democracy itself.

The world – and especially Africa’s regional bodies – should be watching closely.

Godfred Zina is a freelance journalist and an associate at DefSEC Analytics Africa, a consultancy specializing in data and risk assessments on security, politics, investment, and trade across Africa. He also serves as a contributing analyst for Riley Risk, which supports international commercial and humanitarian operations in high-risk environments. He is based in Accra, Ghana.