Is Africa Becoming a Dominant Force?

By Gregory Simpkins

I recently came across an intriguing headline in the New York Times: “The World Is Becoming More African.” The point being made is that Africa’s youth and culture are spreading worldwide.

“By 2050, 1 in 4 people on the planet will be African, a seismic change that’s already starting to register. You can hear it in the music the world listens to. You can see it in movies, fashion and politics. You can sense it in the entrepreneurial drive of young Africans – and the urgent scramble for jobs. You can see it in the waves of youth who risk all to migrate – and in the dilemmas of those who remain,” the article explained.

After years of articles excoriating Africa for its governing failures, social conflicts and mishandled natural disasters, this article caught the attention of many, including those who sent it to me and posted it online on platforms such as LinkedIn.

The article went on to point out that while the rest of the world got older, Africa’s youth were multiplying, and the continent’s population is projected to nearly double to 2.5 billion over the next quarter-century.

Young Africans are better educated and more connected than ever: 44 percent graduated from high school in 2020, up from 27 percent in 2000, and about 570 million people use the internet.

In 1950, Africans made up 8 percent of the world’s people. A century later, they will account for one-quarter of humanity and at least one-third of all young people ages 15 to 24, according to United Nations forecasts, stated the Times article.

The median age on the African continent is 19. In India, the world’s most populous country, it is 28. In China and the United States, it is 38.

Africans eat better and live longer than ever on average. Infant mortality has been halved since 2000 and calorie intake has soared, but not all African countries can handle the growing population.

The Times article stated that Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, is already deeply stressed. Nearly two-thirds of its 213 million people live on less than US$2 a day, extremist violence and banditry are rife and life expectancy is just 53 – nine years below the African average. Yet Nigeria adds another 5 million people every year, and by 2050 is expected to overtake the United States as the world’s third-most populous country.

“Young Africans are better educated and more connected than ever: 44 percent graduated from high school in 2020, up from 27 percent in 2000, and about 570 million people use the internet. But finding a good job, or any job, is another matter,” according to the Times. Up to 1 million Africans enter the labor market every month, but fewer than 1 in 4 get a formal job, the World Bank says. Unemployment in South Africa, the continent’s most industrialized nation, runs at a crushing 35 percent.

Will Africa truly dominate global society?

In 2021, the Brookings Institution’s Africa Growth Initiative presented a report on job prospects for the burgeoning African cadre of school graduates and found it wanting. “By some estimates, 20 million new jobs need to be created every year to meet the increasing demand for jobs.

Yet the job creation capacity of African economies is only half of what it should be, and the lack of adequate employment opportunities has slowed the continent’s structural transformation and progress on poverty reduction,” the report stated.

It is ironic then, that the Global Startup Ecosystem Index lists Nigeria among the top 10 African countries in terms of fostering startup companies. The index states that Nigeria stands out with significant funding and high valuations in the African startup scene.

Two other countries in the top 10 are South Africa, which leads with cities like Cape Town and Johannesburg that have a vibrant, private sector-led startup scene, and Kenya, which has become an innovative tech hub, especially for mobile payment solutions. The tech startup scene in sub-Saharan Africa has experienced significant growth, making the region a hub of innovation.

Africa is full of innovative, educated young people, but if they leave for a life in other countries, where does that leave Africa?

Nevertheless, the brain drain from Africa continues. An estimated 20,000 professionals flee Africa annually, a brain drain that costs billions. About 10,000 South Africans emigrate annually, half of them professionals. Researchers at the University of Cape Town argue that the brain drain in South Africa is more significant than the government admits.

The push and pull factors of this brain drain are wide-ranging, complex and undeniable. Depending on the African country, a professional might be encouraged to leave because of war and/or political instability. The attraction of higher pay and better education and other opportunities for one’s family also have pulled many away.

Of course, this is not just an African issue. In a September 2015 open letter in Le Monde, the heads of 10 successful French start-ups pleaded with their country’s expatriates in America’s Silicon Valley to come back to a revived Paris full of new opportunities. China is another country where hundreds of thousands of educated professionals leave for education and work experience. Some return, but some do not.

Global competition for skilled labor is fierce, and Africa must be more competitive to retain such valuable workers and citizens. Africa is full of innovative, educated young people, but if they leave for a life in other countries, where does that leave Africa?

African culture rising

Of course, African culture is rising and becoming a force worldwide. African artists seemed to be on red carpets everywhere in recent years – at the Grammy Awards, which added a new category for Best African Music; at the Met Gala, where Nigerian singer Tems came wearing ostrich feathers and at the Cannes Film Festival, where a young French-Senegalese director, Ramata Toulaye Sy, was a breakout star. The film Black Panther was a global sensation.

In recent years, African-born actors have been nominated for the movie industry’s Oscars: South Africa’s Charlize Theron who won, as well as Ethiopia’s Ruth Negga, Benin’s Djimon Hounsou, Somalia’s Barkhad Abdi and Kenya’s Richard E. Grant. African-produced films and television programs are having their day in theaters and on streaming services. Ms. Theron and Mr. Grant are white Africans who don’t seem African to those who don’t know about them, and Ms. Negga is so good an actress that she seems more American than African. So how does their collective success elevate the image of Africa?

African fashion had its own shows in Paris and Milan. In Venice, Africa was the focus of the 2023 Architectural Biennale. In 2022, Diébédo Francis Kéré, an architect from Burkina Faso won the prestigious Pritzker Prize. In 2021, Tanzania-born Abdulrazak Gurnah won the Nobel Prize in literature.

Unfortunately, African and Diaspora cultural expressions have long been appropriated by others. Elvis Presley and other white artists made a great living and became famous taking Diaspora music and performing it for a white audience not willing initially to accept black artists. It would seem that this longstanding trend has ended, but will these expressions of creativity truly help to uplift the general view of Africa? Will non-Africans accept the large and small contributions Africa and Africans have made and continue to make over millennia?

For example, there continues to be controversy over the intellectual advancements appropriated many centuries ago by the Greeks so many centuries ago, but not properly attributed to Africans. Peanut soup is an African dish brought over by the African slaves who cooked the food. Yet how many people recognize it as an African dish rather than a southern food?

African culture and history may still be studied around the world. People may still go to African-themed museums and purchase Africa art, but will Africa be seen as a major contributor to today’s world or will Africa be seen as a relic of the past?

The sheer number of Africans is cited in the Times story as a sign of African global dominance, but will they bring their culture to their new homes? Over time, the African immigrant languages will be subordinated to the dominant tongue of their new home, and their children and grandchildren may not even feel the need to be conversant in the language of their family’s home country. They may come to consider themselves as American or Canadian or British or French first like we Diasporans often do even when our DNA tells us where our ancestors are from.

If African expatriates no longer have a zeal to speak the languages of their forebearers, why will non-Africans need or want to learn those languages and keep them alive and vibrant generally Does that mean these will become dead languages like Latin, which is only spoken by a limited number of people?

African cultural expressions such as business acumen, family formation, care of elders, sexual identity certainty and other folkways from home may fade away in succeeding generations to be replaced by whatever the dominant folkways are in the countries to which their families emigrated may be at any given time. In that case, would we say that Africa is dominant just because African descendants are living all over the world? Living in a black skin of whatever shade only honors Africa if we make it so.

Africa and African people have always had much to contribute to the world, but for Africa to be considered a dominant force, the contributions of Africa people must be clearly attributed to Africa. African culture and history may still be studied around the world. People may still go to African-themed museums and purchase Africa art, but will Africa be seen as a major contributor to today’s world or will Africa be seen as a relic of the past?

The African Diaspora is everywhere, but we must exalt our past in building on our present and our future and share with the rest of the world the best the continent has produced and continues to produce. Otherwise, we will be seen as migrants and descendants from a place relevant only for what resources it produces for the benefit of the world at large.

Gregory Simpkins, a longtime specialist in African policy development, is the Principal of 21st Century Solutions. He consults with organizations on African policy issues generally, especially in relating to the U.S. Government. He further acts as a consultant to the African Merchants Association, where he advises the Association in its efforts to stimulate an increase in trade between several hundred African Diaspora small and medium enterprises and their African partners.