High Growth, Low Inclusion: Debunking the ‘Africa Rising’ Myth

By Danilo Desiderio

Ethiopia’s reported 8.1 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the 2023/24 fiscal year might seem like a triumph – and on paper, it is. But behind the headline lies a troubling paradox that echoes across much of the African continent: rapid economic expansion often masks deepening inequality and stagnant living standards for millions.

For too long, investors, policymakers, and international institutions have equated GDP growth with progress, treating it as a reliable proxy for market potential and national well-being. Yet GDP tells only half the story – perhaps the least important half.

It measures the size of the economic pie, not who gets to eat it.

Take Ethiopia: despite two decades of consistent GDP growth, it remains one of the poorest countries in the world by per capita income. This disconnect isn’t an anomaly – it’s a pattern.

From Rwanda to Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast) to Tanzania, many of Africa’s fastest-growing economies share a common flaw: growth that lifts balance sheets but leaves people behind.

The Limits of GDP – and the Power of the Gini

GDP per capita offers a slightly clearer picture by dividing total output by population. But even this metric can be misleading.

If wealth is concentrated in the hands of a small elite – as it often is – the average can appear deceptively healthy while the majority struggle to afford basic necessities.

To truly understand economic inclusion, we must look beyond GDP altogether. Enter the Gini index, a measure of income inequality that ranges from 0 (perfect equality) to 100 (perfect inequality).

Sub-Saharan Africa consistently posts some of the world’s highest Gini coefficients – often above 40, and in some cases nearing 60 – revealing a stark reality: growth is not being shared.

Africa doesn’t need growth that dazzles investors – it needs growth that empowers people. Only then will ‘Africa Rising’ shift from a catchy slogan to a lived reality.

The Myth of the African Middle Class

The narrative of an emerging “African middle class” has long fueled optimism in boardrooms and development agencies alike. But recent data challenges this rosy view.

According to the UNCTAD Trade and Development Report 2024, Africa’s middle class remains small in both absolute numbers and geographic reach compared to other regions. Worse, many households classified as “middle class” live just above the poverty line, making them highly vulnerable to inflation, health crises, or economic shocks.

This fragility undermines the assumption that rising GDP will automatically translate into robust domestic demand or consumer-driven growth. In reality, much of Africa’s economic expansion is driven by narrow sectors – mining, real estate, or export-oriented manufacturing – that generate limited employment and fail to stimulate broad-based prosperity.

Rethinking Growth for Real Progress

The continent’s dual reality is clear: immense opportunity exists alongside entrenched structural weaknesses. Low per capita incomes, weak social safety nets, insufficient job creation in high-value industries, and persistent inequality all conspire to limit the transformative power of growth.

What Africa needs is not just more growth – but better growth. Inclusive development demands deliberate policy choices: reducing income disparities, investing in education and healthcare, strengthening local value chains, and building institutions that serve all citizens – not just the connected few.

Without these foundations, high GDP figures risk becoming little more than statistical mirages – impressive in press releases but hollow in human terms. Growth that doesn’t reduce inequality or improve daily life is not sustainable; it’s a house of cards waiting for the next shock.

From Rhetoric to Reality

The promise of ‘Africa Rising’ captured imaginations a decade ago. But the continent’s future won’t be written in GDP reports alone.

True progress will be measured by whether a farmer in Oromia, a street vendor in Dar es Salaam, or a young graduate in Abidjan can access opportunity, security, and dignity.

Africa doesn’t need growth that dazzles investors – it needs growth that empowers people. Only then will ‘Africa Rising’ shift from a catchy slogan to a lived reality.

Danilo Desiderio serves as the CEO of Desiderio Consultants Ltd in Nairobi, Kenya, specializing in African customs, trade, and transport policies. He is a customs and trade expert at the World Bank and a senior associate to the Horn Economic and Social Policy Institute (HESPI).