Every clash in Africa is a potential proxy war – in a multi-polar setting

By Fidel Amakye Owusu

In my analyses of the crisis in Sudan, both through writing and public discussions, many have expressed a keen interest in understanding the extent to which the conflict might be considered a proxy war among global powers. For some, labeling the conflict as a proxy war is crucial to emphasize its potential global implications and the need for swift mitigation.

Often, conflicts in Africa only garner significant international attention when external powers have vested interests at play. However, as we move through the third decade of the 21st century, it is increasingly difficult to dismiss the influence of external actors in many African conflicts.

Why is this the case?

In a 2021 paper spanning 6,000 words, I argued that what has been dubbed the “New Cold War” is already unfolding in Africa. Unlike the Cold War of the 20th century, this contemporary struggle involves a broader spectrum of independent external players competing for influence on the continent.

In addition to traditional great powers, emerging actors such as Turkey, Brazil, Israel, and the Gulf States are also pursuing distinct agendas in Africa.

What does this mean in practice?

African political leaders must establish clear goals for their own nations and pursue them with a focus on improving the socio-economic well-being of their citizens

Africa’s abundant and widely distributed natural resources make the continent a focal point for diverse external interests. Consequently, when local groups tied to these interests clash, their external backers often find themselves indirectly or directly entangled.

Moreover, the growing military and diplomatic footprint of global powers in Africa makes the likelihood of proxy wars more pronounced. Across the continent, the establishment of military bases and facilities by both great and emerging powers has facilitated military support for different factions in conflict zones.

This increased military presence is accompanied by a rise in arms sales from various external powers. While selling weapons does not automatically spark proxy wars, when linked to resource-rich regions, arms sales can become a strategic priority for exporting states.

Arms manufacturers often aim to showcase the effectiveness of their products, which can lead to competitive proxy conflicts among rival states.

For example, China recently supplied armed drones to the Democratic Republic of Congo, while its regional adversary Rwanda acquired similar drones from Turkey. This dynamic could potentially escalate into a proxy conflict involving both China and Turkey in Central Africa.

Additionally, the recent rise of state-backed mercenaries operating on the continent has further complicated and increased the potential for Africa to be used as a stage for proxy wars by external powers. To prevent this, African political leaders must establish clear goals for their own nations and pursue them with a focus on improving the socio-economic well-being of their citizens.

Fidel Amakye Owusu is an International Relations and Security Analyst. He is an Associate at the Conflict Research Consortium for Africa and has previously hosted an International Affairs program with the Ghana Broadcasting Corporation (GBC). He is passionate about Diplomacy and realizing Africa’s global potential and how the continent should be viewed as part of the global collective.