Ebola impact on African economy much less than previously feared

The impact of the Ebola epidemic on Africa’s economy is predicted to be much less that previously expected.

According to the World Bank’s chief economist for Africa, Francisco Ferreira, the cost is likely to be closer to US$3 billion – US$4 billion, rather than a worst case scenario of US$32 billion.

Ferreira told a lecture in Johannesburg that successful containment of Ebola in some West African countries made its gloomiest forecasts less likely, although economic damage could still escalate if there was any complacency.br />

“The risk of the highest case of economic impact of Ebola has been reduced because of the success of containment in some countries. It has not gone to zero because a great level of preparedness and focus is still needed,” Ferreira said.

Ferreira said, however, that the Ebola crisis had already ravaged tourism in Africa because the “fear factor” kept visitors away from countries even where there had been no cases of the virus.

In a report in October on the possible economic impact of the Ebola epidemic, the World Bank had said that if the virus spread significantly outside the epicenter states of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, this could potentially cost Africa tens of billions of dollars in disrupted cross-border trade, supply chains and tourism. The bank said a scaled-up global response was needed to prevent this worst case scenario.

Since then, efforts to combat the virus in the affected countries, are paying off with a reduction in the instance of infections. The latest World Health Organization Ebola tally on November 14 reported 5,177 deaths out of 14,413 cases, mostly in the three worst-hit countries.