As U.S. Tariffs Rise, Is China Quietly Reshaping Africa’s Trade Future?

By Godfred Zina

In the shifting terrain of global trade, major powers like the United States and China are increasingly influencing the economic trajectory of Africa through contrasting policies and strategic agreements.

On April 2, 2018, then-President Donald Trump announced a sweeping executive order imposing at least a 10 percent tariff on imported goods from countries that imposed tariffs on U.S. exports. This policy triggered significant increases in import fees for several African nations, disproportionately affecting those reliant on access to American markets.

Under the directive, Lesotho faced a 50 percent tariff, Madagascar 47 percent, Mauritius 40 percent, Botswana 38 percent, South Africa 31 percent, Ivory Coast 21 percent, while Ghana and others were hit with a 10 percent fee.

However, the legality of these so-called “reciprocal tariffs” was soon challenged. In a landmark ruling, the U.S. Court of International Trade in New York declared the tariffs unlawful, asserting that President Trump had overstepped his executive authority in implementing them.

Strategic Opening for China

While Washington retreats from its aggressive trade posture, Beijing is stepping forward with a more cooperative approach. China has signaled its intent to negotiate and sign a new economic agreement aimed at eliminating tariffs on all 53 African countries with which it maintains diplomatic relations.

According to China’s foreign ministry, this initiative is part of a broader strategy to deepen trade and investment ties with the continent.

China has also pledged additional support for Africa’s least-developed economies, including technical training, marketing assistance, and streamlined customs procedures – measures designed to help African exporters take full advantage of preferential access to Chinese markets. Historically, China applied an average tariff of around 2–3 percent on African imports, but today, many of the continent’s poorest countries enjoy zero-tariff treatment on nearly 98 percent of taxable goods entering China.

Implications for Africa’s Economic Future

So what does this mean for Africa?

The contrast between U.S. unpredictability and China’s long-term engagement may lead many African nations to recalibrate their economic allegiances. As Western partners grow more protectionist, China offers a vision of stability, accessibility, and growing market potential.

This evolving dynamic could have far-reaching geopolitical implications. African countries may become more economically aligned with Beijing, increasing their reliance on Chinese capital, technology, and infrastructure.

For some, this dependence raises concerns about sovereignty and debt sustainability – but for others, it represents opportunity.

For industrialized African nations with robust manufacturing sectors, the shift could unlock access to China’s vast consumer base. Meanwhile, the poorest countries stand to gain not just market access, but capacity-building support that could strengthen their long-term competitiveness.

Importantly, the move may help rebalance the lopsided trade relationship between China and Africa. Last year alone, China recorded a trade surplus of US$62 billion with the continent – a gap that narrowing tariffs could begin to address.

In sum, as U.S. trade policy becomes more erratic and inward-looking, China appears poised to reshape Africa’s trade future – one tariff-free deal at a time.

Godfred Zina is a freelance journalist and an associate with DefSEC Analytics Africa – a consulting agency specializing in the provision of accurate data and assessments on security, politics, investment, trade, and other risks within Africa. He is based in Accra, Ghana.