As U.S. Pulls Back, Gulf States Seize Africa’s Investment Opportunity

By Danilo Desiderio

As American influence in Africa wanes under a renewed era of U.S. foreign policy retrenchment, a new power bloc is stepping boldly onto the continent: the Gulf states. In a sweeping display of economic diplomacy, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are rapidly filling the strategic vacuum left by Washington – none more dramatically than a recent US$70 billion investment pledge from Al Mansour Holding, a Qatari royal-affiliated conglomerate, across four Southern African nations.

Over the course of a high-profile 10-day tour, Al Mansour Holding announced landmark agreements with Botswana, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe – promises that, if fulfilled, could reshape regional economies and redefine Africa’s geopolitical alliances.

Where the money is headed

The numbers are staggering:

• Mozambique: US$20 billion committed to critical sectors including health, education, energy, and agriculture – signed directly with President Daniel Chapo.
• Zimbabwe: US$19 billion in pledged investments, including a US$500 million hydroelectric project aimed at easing chronic power shortages.
• Zambia: Another US$19 billion deal, reportedly one of the largest bilateral investment packages in the nation’s history.
• Botswana: US$12 billion – equivalent to over half the country’s GDP – with President Duma Boko hailing the agreement as “just the beginning” of a new era of transformation.

These figures aren’t just about infrastructure or economic development. They signal a broader geopolitical pivot – one where African nations, long courted by Western donors and former colonial powers, are increasingly turning to the Middle East for capital, partnerships, and political alignment.

The bigger picture

Analysts suggest that Gulf investment extends beyond infrastructure and development. With Washington scaling back under the Trump administration, African states are actively seeking new partners, and Gulf nations are positioning themselves as strategic players in the continent’s resource and energy sectors.

The UAE, for instance, recently signed 44 agreements with Angola valued at US$6.5 billion, underscoring the region’s ambitious drive to secure a foothold in Africa’s economic future.

Cautious optimism

While the scale of these deals is eye-catching, experts urge caution. Key details regarding timelines, financing structures, and conditionality remain undisclosed.

Political analysts note that Middle Eastern interest in Africa’s mining and energy sectors may be motivated as much by securing natural resources as by fostering genuine development.

If realized, these commitments could rank among the largest foreign investments ever made in Southern Africa. Whether they will truly transform local economies or remain high-profile promises is a question that policymakers, investors, and citizens alike will be watching closely.

Danilo Desiderio serves as the CEO of Desiderio Consultants Ltd in Nairobi, Kenya, specializing in African customs, trade, and transport policies. He is a customs and trade expert at the World Bank and a senior associate to the Horn Economic and Social Policy Institute (HESPI).