African Diaspora Population Growth Varies

By Gregory Simpkins

It took our world until 1804 to reach the first billion in population and another 218 years to reach the second billion. Our world population a quarter of the way into the 21st century stands at more than 8 billion people.

Worldometer puts it at just over 8 billion, 213 million, while others have it slightly lower: The World Counts at more than 8 billion, 186 million, and the US Census Bureau places world population at 8 billion, 126 million. These figures continue to increase by the minute.

So, what is the state of the African Diaspora population within our world’s population?

Outside of the continent of Africa, Diaspora majority countries are primarily located in the Caribbean. Here are some key countries and their population growth rates, although specific rates aren’t provided for all.

We will focus on a few examples and compare them to African countries.

Caribbean countries with high African Diaspora populations:

• Dominican Republic: The Dominican Republic has a population of around 10.7 million, with a growth rate of about 1.1 percent annually.
• Haiti: With a population of around 10 million, Haiti’s growth rate isn’t specified, but it’s considered one of the most populous countries in the Caribbean.
• Jamaica: Jamaica has a population of approximately 2.7 million, with a growth rate of about 0.7 percent annually
• Barbados: Barbados has a population of approximately 287,000, with a relatively slow growth rate.
• St. Kitts & Nevis, Dominica, Antigua & Barbuda, Grenada, Bahamas, and St. Vincent & the Grenadines also have significant African Diaspora populations, but specific growth rates aren’t available.

Comparing population growth rates to African countries:

• Niger: 3.8 percent annual growth rate.
• Uganda: 3.6 percent annual growth rate.
• Chad: 3.5 percent annual growth rate.
• Nigeria: 2.39 percent annual growth rate

As for a global comparison, the population growth rates in many African countries are significantly higher than those in Caribbean countries with African Diaspora populations, which are higher than among Diaspora populations elsewhere. For example, the population growth rate in the United States is about 0.3-0.4 percent annually, while in some European countries, it’s even lower or even negative in some cases.

Key Takeaways

• African countries tend to have higher population growth rates compared to countries with other Diaspora populations.
• The population growth rates in African countries are driven by high fertility rates, declining mortality rates, and improvements in healthcare services.
• In contrast, countries with African Diaspora populations in the Caribbean tend to have lower population growth rates, more comparable to those in North America and Europe.

Determining the exact rate of population growth among the Diaspora in North, Central, and South America, the Caribbean and Europe is complex due to varying data availability and definitions of the Diaspora. However, here are some insights based on available data:

Population Distribution

The African Diaspora is spread across various regions, with significant populations in:

• Brazil: 55.5 percent of the population, around 113 million people.
• United States: 12 percent of the population, approximately 42 million people.
• Haiti: 95 percent of the population, about 10 million people.
• Europe: Countries like France (8 percent, around 4 million), the UK (5 percent, approximately 3 million), and Portugal (7 percent, about 310,000).
• Jamaica: 92.1 percent of the population, roughly 2.6 million people.
• Canada: 4.26 percent of the population at approximately 1,548,000 people.

The growth rate of the African Diaspora is influenced by factors such as:

• Migration: Driven by economic downturns, political instability and lack of personal advancement opportunities in Africa, shifts in population from the continent populate more developed countries with greater economic opportunities.
• Birth rates: Higher birth rates in some African countries contribute to population growth, depending on the rate of survival of children.

Regional Trends

• North America: The African Diaspora population in the US is significant, with a notable presence in urban areas such as New York, Philadelphia, Chicago and Atlanta. The African Diaspora in Canada is significant and growing beyond the national rate of growth. The largest Black populations are found in Ontario, Quebec, Alberta, British Columbia, and Manitoba, with major cities like Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa, Edmonton, and Calgary having significant Black communities.
• Central and South America: Countries like Brazil, Haiti, and Jamaica have large African Diaspora populations, shaped by historical slavery and colonization.
• Europe: Migration patterns, particularly from West Africa, but also from other parts of Africa and the Caribbean, have contributed to the growth of African Diaspora communities in countries like France and the UK.

Given the complexity and variability of population growth rates within the African Diaspora, more specific data would be needed to provide a precise growth rate. However, it’s clear that the Diaspora continues to evolve, influenced by historical, economic, and social factors.

I cannot speak to the situation elsewhere in the Diaspora, but in the US among our Diaspora, the rate of abortion is having a significant effect on the size of our population and its growth rate. I do not bring this up to debate the right to abortion, but rather to show its population impact.

The abortion rate among Black people in the US is significantly higher compared to other racial and ethnic groups. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), in 2022:

• Black abortion rate: 24.4 abortions per 1,000 women aged 15-44 years.
• White abortion rate: 5.7 abortions per 1,000 women aged 15-44 years.
• Hispanic abortion rate: 11.6 abortions per 1,000 women aged 15-44 years.

This means that the Black abortion rate is:

• Nearly twice as high as the Black birth rate (12.3 percent).
• Almost four times higher than the White abortion rate.
• More than twice as high as the Hispanic abortion rate.

In terms of abortion ratios (abortions per 1,000 live births), the CDC reported:

• Black abortion ratio: 429 abortions per 1,000 live births.
• White abortion ratio: 106 abortions per 1,000 live births.
• Hispanic abortion ratio: 165 abortions per 1,000 live births.

The Black abortion ratio is:

• Four times higher than the White abortion ratio.
• 2.6 times higher than the Hispanic abortion ratio.

It is worth noting that abortion rates and ratios can vary depending on the source and methodology used. However, the CDC data suggests that Black women are disproportionately represented in abortion statistics, with significant differences in abortion rates and ratios compared to White and Hispanic women.

That explains the relatively low growth rate for the Diaspora in the US. Whether or not one has the right to obtain an abortion or not, this is a phenomenon that deserves to be examined for its effect on our population. It also deserves examination for its impact on Diaspora populations elsewhere that provide for legal abortions.

According to recent Census Bureau statistics, the current distribution of the U.S. population by race and ethnicity:

• White: 60.1 percent (Non-Hispanic).
• Hispanic: 18.5 percent.
• Black: 12.2 percent.
• Asian: 5.6 percent.
• Multiple Races: 2.8 percent.
• American Indian/Alaska Native: 0.7 percent.
• Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander: 0.2 percent.

Once the second leading major ethnic group in the US, Blacks in America are falling farther behind Hispanics in population percentage, and abortion is likely a large reason why. So, added to the discussion of whether Black women can have abortions should be added the larger consideration of whether they should without considering how it affects our ethnic group as a whole.

Gregory Simpkins, a longtime specialist in African policy development, is the Principal of 21st Century Solutions. He consults with organizations on African policy issues generally, especially in relating to the U.S. Government. He further acts as a consultant to the African Merchants Association, where he advises the Association in its efforts to stimulate an increase in trade between several hundred African Diaspora small and medium enterprises and their African partners.